Brendan Allen, will it ever be your time?
By his own admission, Allen is not the guy the UFC nor a large percentage of fans seem to be particularly invested in getting behind. This despite Allen consistently facing the best fighters in the middleweight division, regularly collecting Fight Night bonuses, and having won 10 of his past 12 fights. Allen is good, but as he heads into Saturday’s UFC Vegas 122 main event, we once again find ourselves asking, “Yeah, but is he that good?“
Christian Leroy Duncan has everything to gain, as he looks to take Allen’s No. 6 spot in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings. The former Cage Warriors champion has also oft been overlooked, even during a five-fight streak that includes his recent win over one-time title challenger Jared Cannonier. Maybe “CLD” is the one not getting enough credit.
In other main card action, Matheus Camilo fights Jai Herbert in a fan-friendly lightweight co-main event, top 10 strawweight Loopy Godinez takes on Ketlen Souza, featherweight veterans Andre Fili and Kai Kamaka III throw down, and Malcolm Wellmaker looks to stop his slide when he fights Otari Tanzilovi.
What: UFC Vegas 122
Where: Meta Apex in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Oct. 10. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a five-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Brendan Allen (6) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (11)
Christian Leroy Duncan has done well for himself, better than a lot of former Cage Warriors stars in fact, but he’s never faced someone with Brendan Allen’s particular skill set and style. Much of Duncan’s UFC opposition has been on the more methodical side, a word that has never been used to describe Allen. And I mean that as a compliment.
By now, you all know how mucky fights in the middleweight division can be, and sometimes it’s just the guy who does more stuff that wins. Allen does stuff, to put it bluntly. He’s an aggressive striker and an even more aggressive grappler, which could actually work out for Duncan, who has a strong counter game. But if he hesitates to pull the trigger, Allen will drown him.
I would love to see Duncan shake things up here, because he has the standup skills to provide an intriguing test to the best fighters in the division. Can he deal with a little chaos, is the question. Allen pressing the action could bring out the beast in Duncan, so Fight of the Night is on the table or at least a showcase for whoever ends up having their hand raised.
Right now, I’m leaning towards Allen, but if Duncan comes out of the gates swinging, he could surprise people. I don’t see it, so Allen it is.
Pick: Allen
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert
I’m high on the main event’s potential entertainment value, but the penultimate bout of the evening ain’t shabby either. Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert has the potential to be a good, old-fashioned slobberknocker.
There’s certainly a path to victory that sees Camilo tackle Herbert if the striking exchanges aren’t going his way, as he’s never shied away from mixing the martial arts. Herbert has had good takedown defense during his career though, and if Camilo telegraphs his shots, he’ll burn out early. So gentlemen, forget the wrasslin’ and throw down!
Herbert has always been a difficult fighter to figure out as he’s rarely too far on either side of the betting lines. He’s up there in years, but he has quality in-cage experience and his smarts have kept him in the game against younger, more athletic competition.
I like Camilo here because even at 25, he has the kind of maturity to not unwisely rush in if Herbert tries to frustrate him early. He’ll play Herbert’s game while finding enough openings to get his own offense going and win a decision.
Pick: Camilo
Loopy Godinez (8) vs. Ketlen Souza
Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza, two strawweights who love to come forward and force the action. Sign me up.
I’m curious to see how Souza adjusts here, since she’s at her best when she faces fighters that allow her to dictate the pace. The same could be said of Godinez, but she has the wrestling card to play at any moment, so even if Souza’s plan is to go all out from the start, Godinez could stop that in hurry by putting Souza on her butt with a double-leg.
Souza needs to accumulate as much damage as she can on the feet while they’re standing, a strategy that has produced mixed results in the past when she’s gone to the cards. She has to ramp up the output and do so consistently to score the upset.
I just haven’t seen enough takedown defense from Souza to convince me that Godinez’s grappling-heavy style isn’t her kryptonite. Godinez by decision.
Pick: Godinez
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
At his best, Kai Kamaka III is a high-volume striking monster and that’s not a bad formula to beat Andre Fili.
The more experienced Fili has been in his fair share of scraps, but he looks particularly sharp when he’s able to establish range and pick his shots. Unfortunately, as he’s gotten older, it’s become increasingly difficult for him to seize the moment, and we’re not just talking about age. The man has been in 40 professional fights, 27 in the UFC (second only to Darren Elkins among featherweights), and he’s gone the distance plenty of times. We’ve watched Fili grow up in the cage, so it’s strange to think Father Time has finally caught up to him.
Fili will give it all he’s got as always, but speed is on Kamaka’s side and that’s the deciding factor here. Kamaka wins two straight UFC fights for the first time.
Pick: Kamaka
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Unfortunately for Malcolm Wellmaker, I feel like his past two losses have painted a pretty clear picture of his ceiling in the loaded bantamweight division. And despite the fact that he’s relatively new to the game, Wellmaker turned 32 this year and there might not be a ton of room for improvement. Harsh, but I’d love for him to prove me wrong.
The good news is, I think the matchmakers did a fine job of finding an opponent to help him right the ship. Otari Tanzilovi is certainly a pesky style matchup for anyone at 135 pounds due to his size and wrestling, but he’s also hittable and that’s the kind of opponent Wellmaker needs to be facing. When Wellmaker has to deal with craftier strikers, it’s a struggle; when he has a dude willing to keep his head on the center line for extended periods of time, it’s a highlight.
Tanzilovi will do his best to neutralize Wellmaker, but his inability to do big damage and keep his opponents down has plagued him in recent losses. If he can’t smother Wellmaker, he’ll eventually wear down and leave that chin out as a juicy target for Wellmaker to detonate.
Pick: Wellmaker
Preliminaries
Gerald Meerschaert def. Julius Walker
Francisco Prado def. Ismael Bonfim
Niko Price def. Leon Shahbazyan
Felipe Franco def. Brendson Ribeiro
RJ Harris def. Allen Frye
Daria Zhelezniakova def. Alice Pereira
Melissa Gatto def. Ernesta Kareckaite
