We’re back at the Apex for the 12th of 20 straight weeks of UFC events, and has often been the trend this year we have new blood taking on a wisened veteran in the main event.
Bantamweight wunderkind Raul Rosas Jr. headlines for the first time as he takes on Raoni Barcelos in Saturday’s UFC Vegas 121 (or The Ultimate Fighter 34 Finale, if you’re cool) main event. Both Rosas and Barcelos are on five-fight win streaks, but coming in at different angles. The 22-year-old Rosas has hit his stride as he aims to fulfill his promise to become the youngest champion in UFC history, while Barcelos, 39, has put together the best stretch of his career against a few fellow veterans and another of the 135-pound division’s blue-chippers, Payton Talbott.
Tonight we find out if Rosas is ready for another step up in competition or if Barcelos can continue his unexpected run to a title shot.
All that, plus a bantamweight bout between Norma Dumont and Ailin Perez that could produce a UFC title challenger, and a pair of TUF 34 tournament finals.
What: UFC Vegas 121
Where: Meta Apex in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Sept. 26. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a five-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos (13)
I like what I’ve seen from Raul Rosas Jr. as the matchmakers have consistently pitted him against more experienced competition. He’s starting to utilize his unique mix of size and speed more effectively, and the cardio issues that plagued him early on have been corrected. Enough to give him the edge in a five-round fight? We’ll see.
For those of you keeping score at home, Rosas has never fought for a full 25 minutes, while Raoni Barcelos has done so a couple of times in his pre-UFC days. One would assume the considerably younger Rosas has the advantage should the fight progress into the later rounds, but Barcelos has remained in great shape throughout his career and has done a fair job of fending off Father Time.
Technique-wise, Rosas continues to improve, though he still has a ways to go when it comes to turning his slick footwork into effective offense. His best path to victory lies in his wrestling, a skill Barcelos will be happy to put up against his own.
This is the right level of competition for Rosas and I expect a strong effort, but I like the more well-rounded Barcelos to force Rosas to stand with him and dictate the action. Once we get to the championship rounds, it will become increasingly clear who is going to pull ahead in the final stretch. I’m going with Barcelos to earn the nod as Rosas once again levels up in defeat.
Pick: Barcelos
Norma Dumont (T3) vs. Ailin Perez (6)
We’ve got a genuine grudge match on our hands here, with Norma Dumont vowing to do things to Ailin Perez that would get her arrested, and Perez confident she’s in Dumont’s head. All that, plus the winner has a good chance of ending up in a UFC bantamweight title fight next? The schedule makers did the right thing bumping this from the prelims to the co-main event.
Look, I’m not pretending this fight will be pretty. Dumont and Perez’s shared animosity is just as likely to give us heated striking exchanges as it is to give us mucky grappling against the fence and on the mat. There will be times good sense goes out the window as these contenders go all out for a win.
Suffice to say, this favors Dumont on the feet and Perez on the ground, so the breakdown here is simple: I believe Dumont has the takedown defense to wear Perez out, and just enough pop in her punches to make Perez think twice about recklessly closing the distance. Eventually, Perez will be out of ideas, and Dumont’s striking will carry her to the decision win.
Pick: Dumont
Luis Hernandez vs. Sedriques Dumas
A deputy sheriff taking on a guy with one of the longest rap sheets in UFC history? Well played.
I’ll never understand the UFC’s fascination with Sedriques Dumas. Character issues aside, the man has not been involved in a single memorable fight and he hasn’t picked up a win since 2024. What are we doing? The originally scheduled matchup with Mickey Gall was truly mystifying, and once Gall pulled out, why not just scrub the whole thing?
On the other hand, Luis Hernandez getting this short-notice opportunity makes a lot of sense. Hernandez is fresh off of a Dana White Contender Series signing and while he’s not the most technically skilled fighter, the dude is all gas, no brakes, and I’ve heard they like that sort of thing in Las Vegas. If anything, he might be the perfect opponent to draw some excitement out of Dumas.
Dumas has a significant size advantage, but I’ve seen Hernandez deal with that before, so I like his chances of just slugging his way in even with Dumas landing a few good shots. Hernandez breaks Dumas down with his pressure and finishes late in the second.
Pick: Hernandez
Mahammadali Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek
Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black
The usual disclaimer: After all these years, I’m still deeply invested in The Ultimate Fighter, and somehow I’m also terrible at picking tournament finals winners. Last year, I nailed Daniil Donchenko and the underdog Joseph Morales, but the year before went 0-2 picking Kaan Ofli and Robert Valentin. Generally it’s been a mixed bag and, again, considering how many hours of my life I’ve dedicated to this show, that’s pretty sad.
But I feel good about this season’s picks!
The bantamweight final features two prospects just starting their careers, as 22-year-old Mahammadali Osmanli takes on 23-year-old Ilimbek Akylbek. Osmanli enters with considerable hype, having finished both his opponents during this TUF 34 run and having the kind of larger-than-life swagger that teammate Xavier Franklin likened to that of Conor McGregor. He’s a striker at heart, but prefers to finish via submission once he smells blood.
Akylbek projects as a classic wrestle grinder, so we’ll learn early whether he can outmuscle Osmanli and, if so, whether he can sustain that offense for three rounds.
On the strawweight side, we have a true clash of styles and background with Combate Global standout Melissa Amaya facing former Invicta FC champion Tina Black. Amaya set herself apart from the rest of the cast with her unrelenting toughness, backed by a potent wrestling game perfectly designed to deal with strikers like Black; on the other hand, Black’s pure punching power has made her a feared prospect for years, and she also has the gas tank to scrap for three rounds if Amaya refuses to back down.
Normally, Amaya’s unique brand of stick-to-itiveness would be enough to convince me she can pull off the upset, but Black is seasoned and I think she finds ways to keep this standing where she has the advantage. Give me Black via a hard-fought decision.
I am buying into the Osmanli hype though, if only because Akylbek is just as raw at this point in their careers. Osmanli’s talent will shine through and all it will take is one mistake for Osmanli to catch Akylbek with a knockout flurry.
Pick: Osmanli and Black
Preliminaries
Rinya Nakamura def. Brady Hiestand
Rodolfo Vieira def. Robert Bryczek
Rodolfo Bellato def. Christian Edwards
Elves Brener def. Josiah Harrell
Ricky Simon def. Montel Jackson
John Castaneda def. Alatengheili
Yazmin Jauregui def. Vanessa Demopoulos
