At UFC 331, Joshua Van headlines for the first time and not only has the chance to answer the most important question of his career, but possibly to become a foundational piece for the promotion over the next decade.
Van’s rise to the top has been like any other in MMA history. Just 24 years old, Van joined the UFC in 2023 with all the markings of a blue-chip prospect, but few could have predicted he would be champion in less than three years, much less win the title by defeating Alexandre Pantoja, one of the best flyweights of this generation. However, Van’s win came with a major asterisk, with Pantoja injuring his arm less than 30 seconds into their fight. Nine months later, with a successful defense under his belt, Van has the opportunity to score a second win over Pantoja and ideally will silence any doubters.
Ahead of UFC 331 on Saturday, MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew predict what the future holds for Van, plus whether Arman Tsarukyan can finally lock in another title shot and what other fights to look out for this weekend.
1. Is Joshua Van the next dominant UFC champion?
Lee: Yes.
Had you asked me this question immediately after Van and Pantoja’s first fight, I would strongly have leaned towards Pantoja regaining the championship. But Van’s title fight win over Tatsuro Taira showed just how much Van has leveled up and, more importantly, that he’s still improving and fast. We talk a lot about older champions catching red-hot challengers at the right time, and UFC 323 might have been the ideal scenario for Pantoja to give Van a reality check. Now? Van’s dormant talents might have escaped containment.
Assuming Van beats Pantoja, he has several worthy challengers waiting for him, and considering how young he is, he could be on the cusp of a run for the ages.
Martin: Joshua Van could be a great champion, but it’s tough to say he’ll be dominant considering the depth of contenders awaiting him at 125 pounds. Let’s not forget that Alexandre Pantoja was on a dominant run until a freak injury left him with an injured arm, and the title went to Van. To his credit, Van put on a stunning performance to defend the title against Tatsuro Taira, but it wasn’t like that fight was one-way traffic from start to finish.
Flyweight just has too many great fighters for anybody to really, truly dominate the weight class. If Van is successful in defending his belt on Saturday, he’s staring down a potential matchup against Manel Kape, who I believe is the nastiest striker at flyweight, and that’s gonna be anything but an easy fight. There are guys like Ramazan Temirov, who is still climbing the ladder towards title contention, not to mention a surging challenger like Asu Almabayev, who has looked great lately. The point being, Van might hold onto that belt, but it’s tough to say he’s going to be a dominant champion with a murderer’s row of contenders awaiting him.
Meshew: Yes.
Setting aside the particulars, the history of young champions strongly suggests that Van is in for a good title reign. While progress is never linear in MMA, almost every fighter does get better over time. So every fighter is mostly the worst version of themselves in their early 20s, and if the worst version of you is good enough to be the champion, every subsequent version will be better, and thus likely to remain champion.
Plus, Van has the luxury of competing in a weight class in turnover. I think flyweight is very good, but right now is a changing-of-the-guard moment in the division, meaning that the best fighters in the division are either older and more vulnerable, or younger and not yet ascendant. If you can be the man in the middle, you can put together a nice run, and that feels like exactly what Van is.
When they first fought, I picked Pantoja to beat Van. Now, I’m flipping that, because even though that win for Van was a fluke, it ended up still tilting the odds in his favor. Pants is even older now and coming off an injury, while Van is even better and has even more confidence.
Van’s real title reign starts on Saturday, and it’ll probably last for a few years.
2. What can Arman Tsarukyan or Mauricio Ruffy do to guarantee a title shot?
Meshew: Legally change their name to “Ilia Topuria,” I guess.
In any sane world, this would be a no-doubt-about-it No. 1 contender matchup. Heck, in their opening press conference, it was even announced as such. But now the UFC is apparently thinking about running back Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria because they really want Topuria to be champion. It’s completely bogus, but it is the reality of the situation.
And it’s not entirely without precedent. Not too long ago, a young, popular fighter was pretty clearly the best lightweight in the world, but the UFC simply would not give him a title fight, in part because there was this loud knockout artist with chest tattoos who they really wanted to be champion. That young kid then took it upon himself to beat the soul out of everyone he had to, talk mad amounts of trash — even during fights — and become undeniable.
Arman Tsarukyan needs to call Khabib to learn how to get over not just with the fans, but with the UFC. Because they seem hell-bent on keeping him from the title.
Lee: Nothing, because this is the UFC and there are never any guarantees.
We’re already hearing rumblings that Topuria’s side wants to run it back with Gaethje, and there’s even potential rematches with Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira, both of whom hold wins over Gaethje and are bigger names than Tsarukyan or Ruffy. Sure, the UFC 331 co-main event winner should have a near-airtight case for a title shot, but that case can have plenty of holes punched in it depending on the whims of the matchmakers and the bean counters over at UFC headquarters.
So no, I don’t believe Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy is a surefire title eliminator by any measure, and until they’re in the building making the walk to the octagon to face a champion, they shouldn’t either.
Martin: The short answer is nothing because there’s no such thing as guarantees when it comes to title shots in the UFC. Dana White doesn’t even make those crazy declarations anymore where he says this is a title eliminator or a No. 1 contender’s bout. Dana has backed himself into a corner too many times in the past where he says a certain fighter is next in line only to end up giving the title shot to somebody else.
Of course, you have to feel for Arman Tsarukyan, who had a title fight lined up but a last-second injury knocked him out of the fight, and he’s never been given a second chance. The way things have looked over the past year or so, he might not ever get a second chance. Tsarukyan could go out, submit Ruffy within two minutes, and there’s still no telling if he would get a title shot, especially with reigning champion Justin Gaethje still recovering from his win over Ilia Topuria in June. The timing is really bad for a title fight, with Gaethje planning to sit out until sometime in 2027. In other words, Tsarukyan and Ruffy just need to go out there and put on a great fight, hope one more time both of them can go home with a $100K bonus, and then get ready to do it all over again at the end of the year or beginning of the New Year. That’s the only guarantee they’re getting.
3. What’s your must-see UFC 331 fight outside of the main and co-main?
Martin: Let’s be honest, this is not a great card but I have to go with the weird heavyweight fight between Tai Tuivasa — who hasn’t won a fight since 2022 and he’s currently riding an impressive eight fight losing streak — and Robellis Despaigne — a fighter who got booted out of the UFC because of his abysmal performances but has since knocked out a former UFC champion in Junior dos Santos and suddenly has everyone talking about him again.
There’s almost no chance Despaigne actually becomes a contender at heavyweight, although judging by the current rankings, anything is possible. But Despaigne hits like a truck; he’s creative with his striking, and he’s got a willing opponent ready to throw down with him until somebody gets knocked out.
It’s not much, but that’s what I’m going with.
Meshew: Can I say none? This card is a collection of all the misfit toys in the UFC.
Seriously, look at it. Brian Ortega is moving to lightweight but doesn’t seem like he even wants to fight anymore, and Rento Moicano has already almost retired. Pitbull ain’t the guy anymore. Chito Vera won’t throw punches until the final minute. AK’s pick is just sad. What is there to gravitate to?
If you’re going to make me choose, I guess I’ll go with Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito because that might be fun, but this card is two elite headliners and then a pile of whatever.
Lee: With respect to future light heavyweight GOAT Iwo Baraniewski, I am all in on this abominable matchup between Tai Tuivasa and Robelis Despaigne.
I say abominable necessarily because I think the matchup will be bad per se, but because of how cynical it is. It’s clear they’re calling Tuivasa up one more time to drain the last bit of dumb fun they can out of him by putting him up against another standup-only fighter, the returning Despaigne. The first Despaigne experiment ended in disaster when he was turned into a tackling dummy by Austen Lane and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, but after a dominant Karate Combat run and a truly macabre knockout over Junior dos Santos for MVP MMA, voila, he’s a viable UFC heavyweight again.
We all know where this is going, but there’s a better than 50 percent chance that complete chaos ensues. Maybe Tuivasa shows off his wrestling. Maybe it’s Tuivasa who scores the big knockout. Or maybe Despaigne breaks the UFC record for fastest knockout. As I said, all in.
