We’re here, ladies and gentlemen (probably mostly gentlemen, or more accurately, dudes) — it’s Conor McGregor fight week.
UFC 329 goes down on Saturday, and with it, the Return of the Mac. Will he actually show? What happens afterward? And what about Max Holloway? Let’s discuss.
Does McGregor show up?
Does McGregor show up?
We all thought he was done, and here we are, six days from the biggest fight of the year.
Now, we’re considerably closer than six days from the event, and it seems a certainty that McGregor will be fighting on Saturday. And, to steal a line from Nate Diaz, I’m not surprised, motherf*ckers.
I’ve said this for months (years, really), but McGregor isn’t returning to the UFC for his legacy, or because he misses the sport, or anything like that. Sure, those things might play some small part in his comeback, but the real reason he’s returning is that he wants out of the UFC, and the only way to do that is to complete his current contract.
McGregor (probably) has a lot of money (I’m not his banker, I don’t know for sure). He likely does not need to fight, even with his numerous legal fees and everything else. And if McGregor wanted to do something else, there is no shortage of opportunities for the man to make money outside of fighting. But he undeniably makes the most money from fighting, and stands to make significantly more if he’s fighting for himself instead of fighting for the UFC.
This has always been the case with the UFC — it takes the lion’s share of money generated from fights. For bottom carders, that might be equitable, but for someone like McGregor, he’s getting screwed, and he knows it.
Outside of the UFC, McGregor can probably make $500 million over the next couple of years. Netflix and Saudi Arabia will pay him a king’s ransom to fight Nate Diaz, Jake Paul, Floyd Mayweather Jr., Manny Pacquiao, and maybe even Mike Perry and Mike Tyson. The UFC is not going to come close to that number, so why would he want to stay there?
But to get to freedom, Conor has to fight. So, come hell or high water, McGregor is fighting on Saturday.
But what if he doesn’t?
Assuming Conor or Max somehow don’t make it to the cage, and the one who stays agrees to fight the rumoured Mauricio Ruffy, how well would they fare against the Brazilian striker?
First off, let’s be clear, Mauricio Ruffy is not the actual backup fighter for Saturday. I don’t think there is one. But Ruffy is trying to put himself in position to step in, and honestly, great move. If it somehow works out, that’s a huge win for Ruffy. And even if it doesn’t, he’s planted the seeds to fight the winner. Just smart self-promotion.
Now, let’s say I’m completely wrong in my first answer and Conor (or Max) withdraws from the event in the next day or two. If Ruffy does get the call, I think he’d have a very good evening.
Against Conor, it simply wouldn’t be much of a fight. Ruffy clearly modeled his style after McGregor, and he’s not coming off a five-year layoff and catastrophic injury. That fight would probably look silly for a bit, and then Ruffy puts him down.
Max would be more interesting. At his peak, Max’s durability would prove problematic for Ruffy, but Max isn’t at his peak anymore. I don’t know how well Max’s high-volume approach will work against guys in their prime who can thump, because it didn’t work against Ilia Topuria. So, I’d have to side with Ruffy, but he’s still a bit unproven, so Max could win that one.
And I think we will find out. Holloway is going to demolish McGregor, and after that, a fight with Ruffy kind of makes a lot of sense. My guess is that’s what’s next.
What’s next for Conor?
Who will Conor McGregor lose to next after Max? Or will he want a trilogy with Max if he loses, much like he did with Poirier?
I hadn’t considered a Max trilogy, but I guess that’s possible. But I don’t think the UFC will want that.
As mentioned above, after this weekend, McGregor only has one fight left on his deal, and the UFC knows he’s not coming back (that’s why they want to delay until next year, while Conor wants to fight in December), so they’re going to try to milk everything they can out of that last one. And that means there are two obvious front-runners: Paddy Pimblett and Ilia Topuria.
While there aren’t many positives for Topuria after his loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC White House, the one small silver lining is that he’s now in the McGregor sweepstakes. Had Topuria won, he’d probably be fighting for the welterweight title, and a Conor fight would make zero sense. Now it kind of does. The UFC can book the actual McGregor against the Next McGregor, and when Ilia puts him down, he has hopefully become a transcendent star for the promotion.
The same is true for Paddy Pimblett. If Pimblett beats Benoit Saint Denis, that math might change because booking him against the guy who just lost to Holloway doesn’t make much sense. But if Paddy loses to BSD? Easy money. That fight would be the most-watched event of the year by a wide margin, and would be a good bounce-back for Pimblett and level up his own stardom.
Expect one of those two next spring.
A sad future
If Conor knocks out Max, which sport should I then switch to being a fan of instead? I’m leaning towards Tiddlywinks, but am undecided.
That would truly be a sad outcome, and a sign that Max Holloway is really past it.
Personally, I’ve become a big F1 guy over the past five years. And right now, the Tour de France has just started, so you can watch the duel between Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard (and Remco?). It’s the sort of classic rivalry that makes sports fun!
Thanks for reading, and thank you to everyone who sent in questions! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because every week I put a prompt into The Feed for your questions. Fire them into there, and I’ll answer the best ones in the Mailbag, and try to get to the rest in the responses.
