"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making. I know we all get really excited for the Triple Crown races that take place early in the year, but The Breeders' Cup is always filled with some exciting races that could be worth a wager or two. Here are some of my insights ahead of this weekend's big event.
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FRIDAY Juvenile Turf Sprint I’ll be using three prominently across multi-race wagers and that's (1) Brussels, (2) Military Code and (6) Intricate Spirit. All three have shown the ability to make the lead or win from off the pace. That will be valuable here.
And all three are a square price on the ML. Then there's (9) True Love, who was 2/5 vs. Gstaad, so it's clear she’s talented.
I don’t mind taking a filly against boys, but her only win against boys was in a field of four. She can win, but will probably be over bet. I’m against (11) Schwarzenegger, who might regress a little first out against winners from far outside post.
Juvenile Fillies This feels pretty straightforward, with (7) Explora and (5) Tommy Jo looking like the most likely winners. Juvenile Turf Fillies There's (12) Pacific Mission, who drew outside. But at a mile, it might not be a death knell.
There’s a lot to like here in her second start vs. winners. She was just beaten at a mile last out in a Group 2 and while the timeform figs came back a little light, she can easily improve here at a huge price. You've got (13) Precise who stands out on form and figures, but will she avoid breaking out from the far outside post?
I’ll still play around with keying her second and third in tris with prices on top, like Pacific Mission, (2) Queen of Hawaii, (5) Final Accord and (9) Time to Dream. Juvenile It’s hard to look past (8) Ted Noffey and (7) Brant. Of course, (2) Blackout Time could split them in the tri, but I’m not sure that's really worth a bet.
Try and get prices in P3s/4s/5s in other legs around the two faves here. Juvenile Turf We've got (14) Gstaad, who continues the trend of big favorites drawing outside. That said, I’ll still use it as a tri key underneath.
He’ll have to have everything go his way to win, but it’s not impossible. Then (7) Gordon Pass could be a Walden bomb here. He has a knack for getting horses to outrun their odds and Irad Ortiz isn't hopping on a 20-1 shot on BC Friday just for exercise.
He was 52-1 last out at Keeneland and had a tough go of it and was beaten by just 2.5 lengths. I’ll be using him all over. There's (3) Outfielder, who opted for this race and might be dangerous on the lead on the stretch-out.
He was 3-1 vs. Gstaad two back in France. SATURDAY Filly and Mare Sprint Kopion deciding not to go here was interesting, as she would have been a big bet for me, but my takeaway is Richard Mandella is pretty confident in (4) Tamara.
She’s a nose defeat off a year layoff from being perfect in sprint distances. Another one that intrigues me is (9) Richi. First start in the U.S. last year just missed, then won the Las Flores.
Drew the rail in the Santa Monica and was beaten by Kopion. They’ve stretched her out. She could fall into a really nice trip here on the cutback, as rightful favorite (6) Sweet Azteca could come under pressure and be vulnerable late.
Turf Sprint Too bad this isn’t being run at Saratoga, where (5) Bring Theband Home would be a lock! I think (1) Motorious seems like way too short a price here for someone that's been facing some suspect fields out west and was 13-1 in this race last year, where he finished second. Might he have trouble getting a clear run late from the inside as well?
I’ll still use underneath, but I’ll look elsewhere for a winner. Another closer to look at underneath is (4) Khadem, but I’d be surprised if he backed up that win at Keeneland. Also, (8) AG Bullet seems like the most likely winner.
She can be on or right off the lead and the post draw gives Johnny V options. I don’t know what to do with (3) Arizona Blaze, who just missed here last year at 27-1. Was that race a one-off or a sign he likes the DMR course?
It is hard to swallow 5-1 though. I will be using (11) Bucanero Fuerte all over the place. Note: He was shorter than Arizona Blaze last out at the Curragh and his timeforms as a four-year-old have been really good.
Getting Umberto Rispoli on the DMR turf course is a plus, too. He could be what Arizona Blaze was last year. Sprint I was surprised (1) Kopion went here, and she likely lost all chances at the post draw, which is too bad for the connections.
Not a chance in the world that defending champ (12) Straight No Chaser will be 8-1. My question is, can we expect the same type of performance as last year when he came in off a great prep at SA? This year, that same prep resulted in a Beyer 10 points lower.
Is it because of the longer layoff returning from the Middle East? Who knows. He can win, and I'll be sure to include him on my multi-race tickets, but I will be deeper than just him. (Remember, 10) Bentornato ran too well to lose last year to Straight No Chaser and is now 5-2 off being 28-1 in last year's sprint.
He’s only run once since then, so the question for you to answer is, does he bounce to the moon off a career-top off a 10-month layoff or does he improve even more? I think the race opens up for two double-digit prices — (2) Banishing who cuts back from a pair of 1 1/8 races and just missed vs Mindframe at 7f at CD (where he DH with Nysos for 2nd) and (3) Lovesick Blues, who goes turf-to-dirt for Librado Barocio, who had a terrific DMR summer meet where Lovesick Blues won the Bing Crosby at 19-1. Distaff Probably long gone at a very short price here is (8) Seismic Beauty.
I have an uneasy feeling about (1) Nitrogen. Won an off the turf three-horse Wonder Again at SAR, beat five horses, including an out-of-form Good Cheer in the Alabama and then finished second at KEE to an 18-1 shot in a five-horse field. I think the three-year-old is up against it here.
Couple of double-digit runners to at least use underneath. You have (2) Sarawak Rim, who is making her first start in the U.S., first start for Ignacio Correas and first start in six months. We have no idea what she was facing in Argentina, but at 12-1 I’ll take my chances.
The other is (3) Clicquot, who hasn't been facing the best of fields but her stalking style should help her chances of hitting the board. Her Beyer in the Cotillion win was just one point off what Nitrogen ran in the Alabama and you’re getting more than double the price. Turf It’s hard not to love and appreciate a horse like (1) Rebel’s Romance, who is making career start No.
30 and has won 20 times, including in this race last year. I’m here to see him and the three-year-old filly, (8) Minnie Hauk throw down in the stretch. I believe (3) Amiloc could be a nice price to throw in your exactas and trifectas.
Classic The scratch of Sovereignty is a bummer as someone who appreciates greatness in the sport. From a betting standpoint though, it might make for a more compelling race in some people’s eyes. We've got (1) Fierceness who will likely take over the role of favoritism and deservedly so.
He romped here in the Pac Classic — in a field which included Journalism — from the rail. I think he wins right back. One that will take a lot of money is (5) Forever Young, but as we saw last year in this race, he’s just a notch below Fierceness and last year’s winner (7) Sierra Leone.
Sierra Leone has only run four times this year and won just once, but his figures are still solid. I just don’t think the race is going to set up for him like last year did. I’m curious to see the price on Mindframe, who beat Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster and was 9-5 in the Jockey Club where he threw his rider.
Will we have a Repole 1-2? Mile I believe (2) Notable Speech wins with a clean trip, something he didn’t get in last year’s edition as the favorite. If you’re looking for a potential upsetter, (10) Jonquil could be that.
That's considering he drew all the way outside at KEE and didn't miss by much against Rhetorical and Program Trading, two horses he’ll be longer than here. Being beaten a head by Henri Matisse at Longchamp is nothing to sneeze at either. With a better draw here and second time in the U.S., he could run huge here.
I don’t know what to do with the CA-based horses. It feels like the fields they have been facing haven’t been great, but Formidable Man is 6-6 at DMR and Johannes ran big here last year. But it’s Notable Speech’s race to lose.
Dirt Mile The surest win bet over the entire two days might be (3) Nysos and (6) Full Serrano, who won this race last year at 13-1, is the biggest danger. That's if he can get an easy lead like he did a year ago. Filly and Mare Turf It’s almost like the PP draw really wanted to test our resolve and handicapping skills all weekend as (13) She Feels Pretty — as does 14 See The Fire — gets a near impossible draw with the short run to the first of three turns.
If you have faith the price will be right. I’m not sure why (5) Gezora is 7-2. I’m assuming it's because the big guns drew poorly, but I like other Euros in here better, including (6) Diamond Rain, who just missed vs.
She Feels Pretty at WOO and her stablemate (9) Cinderella’s Dream, who was runner-up last year here as the favorite. Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events.
Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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