I made the grave mistake of defending Justin Herbert on social media this week and sparked another unbearable debate on the Chargers quarterback. I probably should have known that nothing I would say would change the minds of those who think he’s overrated. The back-and-forth between the two sides has become repetitive.
Herbert backers will point to his film and expansive skill set, while his detractors will keep asking why all that talent hasn’t produced more wins and better stats, with neither side willing to cede any ground. With the Chargers at 0-2 and staring down an unforgiving gauntlet of contenders that starts with Sunday’s game against the Bills, their season is pretty much chalked. So, Herbert will likely go another season without notching that elusive playoff win, and the football world will keep debating whether he’s worth all the hype.
I’m firmly on the pro-Herbert side of the debate, but I’m willing to admit there are holes in his game that have contributed to L.A.’s disappointing start. With Herbert facing off against Bills star Josh Allen this weekend, the contrast between their games will put his biggest weakness on full display. The Bills quarterback is a daring playmaker whose cavalier approach is highly effective and sometimes reckless.
But no matter how many mistakes Allen makes, he keeps Buffalo’s offense at the top of the NFL’s efficiency charts and in title contention. Herbert’s style of play may lead to fewer mistakes, but it hasn't led to more consistency for his offense or more success for his team. Herbert can be a bit robotic, following the script his offensive coordinator lays out, even when the situation calls for a little improvisation.
It’s not that Herbert is bad when playing out of structure; he just doesn’t do it nearly enough for a guy of his ability. He’s 6-foot-6 and can outrun defensive linemen and most linebackers. He doesn’t lose any arm strength on the run and doesn’t need much time or space to get a throw off.
Take this play from last year’s win over the Broncos. Herbert shrugs off 285-pound defensive lineman Zach Allen, escapes the pocket, and quickly flips his hips to get a throw off with edge rusher Nik Bonitto right in his lap. Oh, and it’s a perfectly placed, 30-yard dot that beats tight coverage.
That’s a play that only two other quarterbacks in this league can make: Allen and Patrick Mahomes. We just don’t see him make those plays nearly as often as those two. It’s not like Herbert is trying and failing to make them, though.
And that’s why it can be frustrating to watch Herbert dutifully go through his progression, hoping one of his receivers will pop open (they usually don’t), and his protection will hold up (it usually doesn’t). So, while he can be a victim of his circumstances – and his mediocre statistical production is a product of his offensive environment – Herbert is choosing to play on hard mode more than he needs to. Herbert taps into the play-making mindset when he’s forced to.
That throw against the Broncos is a good example. Here’s another from last Sunday’s loss to the Raiders. The play call is a dud that leaves Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby unblocked, with Herbert’s play-fake putting him directly in the path of the all-World pass rusher.
Herbert coolly side-steps to create space and hits tight end Oronde Gadsden II for a touchdown. If I could make one change to Herbert’s game, I'd rewire his brain so he'd play more like Allen and approach every dropback as if there’s an unblocked defender in his face – it wouldn’t require much imagination behind that offensive line – and to play every drive like the Chargers are down 10 in crunch time. It would lead to more mistakes, sure, but like Allen, Herbert is talented enough that the good would easily outweigh the bad.
With the Chargers in complete disarray, the need for Herbert to break out of his shell is stronger than ever. More than anything, he should be more aggressive in hunting play-making opportunities earlier in games before it’s too late. In each of the first two weeks, Herbert played well when the game was still hanging in the balance.
Per Next Gen Stats, he’s averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and 0.12 EPA per dropback when L.A.’s win probability is greater than 25%. Pro Football Focus has him graded as the fifth-best quarterback in the league outside the fourth quarter this season. Things have fallen apart in garbage time, though.
When the Chargers have a win probability under 25%, Herbert's yards-per-attempt average drops to 5.0 and his EPA average plummets to -0.66. Those 17 dropbacks haven’t really affected the results of those games, but they have done significant damage to his stat line and how his performance over two weeks has been perceived. That’s why it’s difficult for Herbert truthers like me to fully blame him for the 0-2 start.
He’s played well outside of garbage time. But over the last two weeks, it's become clear he needs to play even better – like the superstar quarterbacks in Kansas City and Buffalo – to overcome a crappy offensive environment and keep the game from reaching garbage time in the first place. I’ll concede that point to the anti-Herbert crowd.
But if they’re holding him to Mahomes and Allen standards, they might think more highly of Herbert than I do.
