UCLA has been on a heater, but the Bruins could face a bump in the road when they play Wisconsin in Week 7. In the NFL, the Seahawks are traveling to face the Broncos after a tough, short week. I believe there's value in betting the underdog in both these games and here's why.
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The letdown spot is something handicappers have looked at for years when trying to pick winners in sports betting. A team gets a big, emotional win, and bettors often look to bet against that team the following week, figuring they might come out flat after celebrating from the previous week. That logic has worked this year in certain situations already.
Ole Miss got revenge against its old coach Lane Kiffin back in September but got blown out the following week by Florida. The Gators, who were then being praised as national title contenders and a Playoff team, followed up their breakout win by getting blown out by Missouri. We have a similar situation this weekend, as UCLA just got a huge, program-defining type of win with a road upset against Oregon.
The Bruins have a clear path to the College Football Playoff. Now, they host a Wisconsin team that is flying under the radar at 4-1, and the Badgers' only loss was to Notre Dame — a game that was close in yardage and was tight in the second half before some turnovers blew it open. Oh, and UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Don’t be surprised if the high of beating Oregon doesn’t last long. If Broncos quarterback Bo Nix didn’t get hurt last January, then this would quite possibly be a Super Bowl rematcn. But it’s not, and the defending champion Seahawks come into this road tilt off of a short week and a physical game with the 49ers.
In that loss, the Seahawks showed some cracks. Quarterback Sam Darnold showed flashes of his younger days when he was prone to turnovers, throwing two interceptions in defeat. The team also clearly has a hole that hasn’t been filled at running back since the departure of SB MVP Kenneth Walker, highlighted by George Holani’s game-altering fumble.
Meanwhile, the Broncos never seem to have leads but have somehow come out with wins more times than not. They are now 17-5 since the start of the 2025 season. Denver is a tough place to play, especially on a short week after a physical game.
I like getting the gritty Broncos as home ‘dogs.
