The 2026 NFL season is just over a month and a half away, which means sportsbooks have posted regular-season win totals for all 32 teams. While blockbuster free-agent signings and NFL Draft decisions often drive movement in the market, strength of schedule is once again expected to play a major role in shaping the betting landscape this fall. According to FOX Sports' projected schedule difficulty, the Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers have the toughest schedules in the league.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans Saints have the easiest road ahead. The Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks led the league with 14 wins last year, but oddsmakers aren't buying a sequel. Meanwhile, after acquiring the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett, the Los Angeles Rams win total has surged.
So which teams are projected to win the most games this year? And which teams might fall short of their expected win totals? Let’s dive into the win totals at DraftKings Sportsbook as of July 23.
2026-27 NFL Regular-Season Over/Under Win Totals Arizona Cardinals Over 3.5: -136 (bet $10 to win $17.35 total)Under 3.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total) What to know: The Cardinals won just three games in 2025 and lost their final nine games of the season. Arizona drafted RB Jeremiyah Love as an explosive weapon who could help improve the offense, but the defense remains a major concern. Combined with the NFL’s fourth-hardest schedule, it’s no surprise their win total is set very low.
Atlanta Falcons Over 6.5: -146 (bet $10 to win $16.85 total)Under 6.5: +125 (bet $10 to win $22.50 total) What to know: The Falcons won eight games in 2025 and closed the season on a four-game winning streak. Despite that momentum, Atlanta enters 2026 with a relatively low win total under new head coach Kevin Stefanski and with Tua Tagovailoa currently favored to start at quarterback. Baltimore Ravens Over 11.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 11.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total) What to know: The Ravens won only eight games in 2025, but much of that was due to Lamar Jackson missing four games while also dealing with injuries for most of the season.
After parting ways with John Harbaugh after 18 seasons, Baltimore hired Jesse Minter as its new head coach and made a major splash in free agency by signing Trey Hendrickson. Buffalo Bills Over 10.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)Under 10.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total) What to know: The Bills have gone over their win total of 10.5 in each of the last six seasons. After firing Sean McDermott this offseason, Buffalo promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach while also trading for DJ Moore and signing Bradley Chubb.
Carolina Panthers Over 7.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)Under 7.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total) What to know: The Panthers won the NFC South last season with just eight wins. Coming off its first playoff appearance since 2017, Carolina significantly upgraded its defense with the additions of Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd. Chicago Bears Over 9.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)Under 9.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total) What to know: The Bears won 11 games and the NFC North in Ben Johnson's first season in Chicago, but they are set to face the NFL’s toughest schedule in 2026.
That, combined with several key defensive departures and the unexpected retirement of center Drew Dalman, has lowered their win total entering the season. Cincinnati Bengals Over 10.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 10.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total) What to know: The Bengals won just six games in 2025, but that was largely because Joe Burrow missed nine games while they also fielded one of the worst defenses in the NFL. However, Cincinnati made several major additions this offseason, including Dexter Lawrence II and Boye Mafe, among other moves.
Combining the roster additions with the third-easiest schedule in the league, the Bengals are expected to take a major step forward in 2026. Cleveland Browns Over 5.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)Under 5.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total) What to know: The Browns won five games in 2025 and finished last in the AFC North. However, Cleveland made several major changes this offseason, including hiring Todd Monken and upgrading an offensive line that struggled throughout last year.
The Browns are also expected to have one of the league’s most intriguing quarterback competitions, choosing between Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and rookie Taylen Green. Dallas Cowboys Over 9.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 9.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total) What to know: The Cowboys won seven games last season, mostly because they had one of the NFL’s worst defenses. However, their offense remained elite, ranking fifth in the league with 27.7 points per game.
Dallas addressed its biggest weakness this offseason by trading for Rashan Gary and drafting Caleb Downs, two additions that could dramatically improve the defense. Combined with an easier schedule, those moves are a major reason why the Cowboys are projected for a higher win total in 2026. Denver Broncos Over 9.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)Under 9.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total) What to know: The Broncos were one of three teams that led the NFL with 14 wins last season.
However, they also recorded 11 one-possession victories during the regular season, which tied an NFL record. The big question entering 2026 is whether Denver can replicate that same success in close games. Their win total signals they will take a step back despite acquiring Jaylen Waddle via trade.
Detroit Lions Over 10.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)Under 10.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total) What to know: After winning 15 games in 2024, the Lions took a major step back in 2025, finishing 9-8 and missing the playoffs. However, because Detroit finished last in the NFC North, it will face the sixth-easiest schedule in 2026, which is a major reason why the team's win total is so high. Green Bay Packers Over 9.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total)Under 9.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total) What to know: Despite their recent success, the Packers have only gone over this win total twice in the past five seasons, including last year when they had just nine wins and lost their final five games.
Even with the third-hardest schedule in 2026, Green Bay still has high expectations from Vegas. Houston Texans Over 9.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)Under 9.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total) What to know: Houston has won at least 10 games in each of the last three seasons, including 12 wins in 2025. After starting last season 0-3, the Texans won 12 of their final 14 games, including a nine-game winning streak to close out the regular season before losing to the Patriots in the divisional round.
Indianapolis Colts Over 7.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)Under 7.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total) What to know: The Colts’ 2025 season was the complete opposite of the Texans'. Indianapolis started 7-1 and held the No. 1 seed in the AFC after Week 8.
However, it then lost eight of its final nine games, including a seven-game losing streak to end the season. That collapse included a four-game stretch without starting quarterback Daniel Jones due to injury. Jones is expected to remain the starter in 2026 after signing a two-year, $88 million contract extension.
Jacksonville Jaguars Over 8.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)Under 8.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total) What to know: After winning just four games in 2024, the Jaguars completed an incredible turnaround in 2025 with 13 wins and an AFC South title in Liam Coen’s first season as head coach. However, Jacksonville did suffer a few notable free-agent losses, including Travis Etienne Jr. and Devin Lloyd, which could help explain the team’s lower projected win total entering 2026. Kansas City Chiefs Over 10.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 10.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total) What to know: The Chiefs recorded their lowest win total since 2012 with just six wins, largely due to a brutal 1-9 record in one-score games.
While Kansas City remained in playoff contention for most of the season, Patrick Mahomes’ ACL injury caused him to miss the final three games and effectively ended the team’s playoff hopes. With Mahomes expected to return by Week 1, Vegas expects the Chiefs to bounce back to championship-level contention in 2026. Las Vegas Raiders Over 5.5: -145 (bet $10 to win $16.90 total)Under 5.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total) What to know: After finishing with the worst record in the NFL last year with just three wins, the Raiders finally have hope after drafting Fernando Mendoza.
After spending $281.5 million on the very first day of free agency alone, Las Vegas should be much improved in 2026 even if it decides to go with Kirk Cousins at quarterback to start the season. Los Angeles Chargers Over 9.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)Under 9.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total) What to know: The Chargers won 11 games in 2025 despite losing both All-Pro tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, for most of the season. Both are expected to return in 2026, and Los Angeles also added Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator.
Even with those major boosts, the Chargers’ win total is somehow lower entering the season. Los Angeles Rams Over 11.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)Under 10.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.59 total) What to know: The Rams won 12 games last season, and if not for a few bad breaks and costly mistakes in their losses to Seattle, it could have been Los Angeles hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The Rams' biggest weakness, the secondary, was addressed this offseason with the addition of Trent McDuffie via trade.
And now, after trading for the best defensive player in football in Myles Garrett, the Rams do not have a weakness. They are currently the current Super Bowl favorite at +550. Miami Dolphins Over 4.5: +122 (bet $10 to win $22.20 total)Under 4.5: -146 (bet $10 to win $16.85 total) What to know: The Dolphins have the second-lowest projected win total entering 2026.
Miami will look completely different this season following the departures of Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa, as they were major sellers this offseason, trading away both Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick while also releasing Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb. Jeff Hafley and Malik Willis are now set to lead a new era in Miami. Minnesota Vikings Over 8.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)Under 8.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total) What to know: The Vikings won nine games last season after letting Sam Darnold walk in free agency, but one positive was how they finished, winning their final five games.
Minnesota also signed Kyler Murray to a veteran minimum contract to compete with J.J. McCarthy for the starting quarterback job in 2026. New England Patriots Over 10.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 10.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total) What to know: The Patriots are coming off a 14-win season that ended with a Super Bowl appearance, but they also faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL in 2025.
New England now has the sixth-toughest schedule entering 2026, which is a major reason why Vegas is projecting a drop in wins. However, the Patriots did go out and trade for A.J. Brown, which should be a huge boost for Drake Maye.
New Orleans Saints Over 7.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)Under 7.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total) What to know: The Saints won only six games last season, but they went 5-4 in games started by Tyler Shough and just 1-7 in all other contests. With Shough expected to enter 2026 as the full-time starter, New Orleans’ win total has increased, especially with the team also facing the second-easiest schedule in the NFL. New York Giants Over 7.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)Under 7.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total) What to know: After winning a combined 13 games over the last three seasons, the Giants are officially in a new era in New York under John Harbaugh.
The Giants improved this offseason with an impressive draft class that included Arvell Reese and Francis Mauigoa, who are set to join a young core featuring Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers. The future looks bright for New York. New York Jets Over 5.5: -120 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)Under 5.5: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total) What to know: The first year of the Aaron Glenn era in New York did not go as planned, as the Jets won just three games.
However, after signing Geno Smith, adding several key defensive free agents and bringing in a solid draft class featuring offensive weapons Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr., Vegas expects at least some improvement in 2026. Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 10.5: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total) What to know: The Eagles have gone over this win total in each of the last four seasons. However, after starting 8-2 last year, Philadelphia lost five of its final eight games, including a wild-card playoff loss to the 49ers.
The Eagles had a strong offseason, adding Riq Woolen and Dontayvion Wicks while also drafting Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers to ease the loss of A.J. Brown. Their offense, under new OC Sean Mannion, is expected to play a major role in determining their success in 2026.
Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)Under 8.5: -130 (bet $10 to win $17.69 total) What to know: In Mike Tomlin’s 20 seasons with the Steelers, Pittsburgh never had a losing season, and the team had won more than 8.5 games in every year since 2019. However, Tomlin is now gone, and Mike McCarthy has taken over as head coach. McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers will reunite from their days in Green Bay alongside several new offensive weapons.
San Francisco 49ers Over 9.5: -146 (bet $10 to win $16.85 total)Under 9.5: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total) What to know: The 49ers remarkably won 12 games in 2025 despite dealing with a plethora of injuries to several key players. Brock Purdy missed eight games, while Fred Warner and Nick Bosa both suffered season-ending injuries. George Kittle and Talanoa Hufanga also missed a significant portion of the season.
Even after overcoming those injuries and exceeding expectations, San Francisco’s projected win total has dropped entering 2026. Seattle Seahawks Over 10.5: -115 (bet $10 to win $18.70 total)Under 10.5: -105 (bet $10 to win $19.52 total) What to know: The Super Bowl champions won 14 regular-season games last season in a historic year. However, losing several key contributors, including Boye Mafe, Kenneth Walker III, Coby Bryant and Riq Woolen, has significantly dropped Seattle's 2026 win total.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8.5: +115 (bet $10 to win $21.50 total)Under 8.5: -136 (bet $10 to win $17.35 total) What to know: After starting last season 6-2, Tampa Bay lost seven of its final nine games and missed the playoffs. Vegas is expecting a similar type of season from the Buccaneers in 2026. Tennessee Titans Over 6.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)Under 6.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total) What to know: In Cam Ward’s first NFL season, the Titans won just three games.
However, Tennessee made several major changes this offseason, including hiring Robert Saleh as head coach and Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator. The Titans also signed John Franklin-Myers to a big contract and drafted wide receiver Carnell Tate with the No. 4 overall pick.
With those additions, Tennessee appears poised to improve in 2026. Washington Commanders Over 7.5: -125 (bet $10 to win $18 total)Under 7.5: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total) What to know: After a dream season in 2024 in which the Commanders won 12 games and reached the NFC Championship Game, Washington took a major step back in 2025, winning just five games. However, Jayden Daniels missed seven games, and the Commanders went just 2-5 without him.
