The only thing that is clear when talking about championship contenders is that Kyle Larson is firm as No. 1 with two victories in the first four races of The Chase. Larson’s victory and max points at Kansas on Sunday created a big gap between him and most of the field.
There are only three drivers within one race worth of points (76). So not even all drivers in the top 10 of this list are considered to have a good shot. Here are my contender rankings heading into the fifth race of The Chase, which is next Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
For those still in at least somewhat legitimate contention, we’ll also give a bit of an outlook for Vegas. On The Verge (Alphabetical Order): Chris Buescher (RFK Racing No. 17 Ford, -186 points behind leader): A 23rd-place finish at Kansas (partly because of damage from the wreck at the start of Stage 2) has left him with mathematical hope, but that’s about it for the title.
William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet, -158): Byron finished seventh and earned nine stage points but is more than two full races behind his teammate Kyle Larson. Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No.
9 Chevrolet, -161): An eighth-place finish and only three stage points at Kansas was crushing to his championship hopes. Carson Hocevar (Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet, -150): Being involved in an accident to start Stage 2 all but eliminated Hocevar from having any shot at the title.
Ryan Preece (RFK Racing No. 60 Ford, -173): Preece was 10th at Kansas and his main priority should be consistent top 10s the rest of the way. Daniel Suárez (Spire Motorsports No.
7 Chevrolet, -187): Suárez was 14th at Kansas but at least he knew he was going home to his new baby boy. Contender Rankings Cindric finished second and earned 17 stage points at Kansas for a great day. He still lost 24 points to the leader.
At this point, he's probably thinking that finishing in the top 10 in points is a good goal. Unfortunately for Cindric, he has never finished in the top five at Las Vegas and was 19th in the spring race at the track. Wallace got damage in the wreck at the start of Stage 2 and rallied to finish ninth.
But with no stage points, that meant he lost 48 points to Larson, which pretty much crushes any title hopes. He has just one career top five at Vegas and was ninth in the spring. Reddick needed several changes to his car for an 11th-place finish.
Like his teammate Wallace, he lost significant ground to Larson to the tune of 50 points. The struggle is real. He has two top fives and five top 10s in the nine Next Gen races at Las Vegas but was 13th in the spring.
Gibbs finished 17th at Kansas, a place where he really needed at least a top 10 to keep somewhat of pace with the leaders. He has a best finish of fifth (twice) at Las Vegas, including in the race last spring. A fifth-place finish at Kansas was solid but he still lost 39 points to Larson.
He can gain it back but will need others to have trouble while he rattles off some wins. He has just one Next Gen top five at Vegas and that was a third in 2024 and was 16th in the spring. Logano followed his Bristol win with a 20th-place finish after he had a tire issue late in the race.
He lost 51 points to Larson in a big swing. But Vegas is a good track for Logano, where he has two Next Gen victories. But his last three races were a 15th, a sixth and another 15th.
Briscoe virtually has no chance at the title. He lost another 36 points to Larson, despite a fourth-place finish. But he is the one driver who could win the next two races based on his intermediate-track speed.
So maybe that can give him some hope. Vegas? It’s a solid track for him, a place where he has a fourth and an eighth in his last two starts.
Bell was sixth at Kansas and lost 33 points to Larson. But you can’t count him out because like his teammates Briscoe and Hamlin, he has the potential to rattle off wins. Bell has four poles in the nine Next Gen races at Las Vegas and has three top fives in the last four races there, including a third a year ago and a fourth in the spring.
Hamlin is down but not out. He finished third at Kansas and lost 25 points to the leader. The good news for Hamlin?
He has won the last two races at Las Vegas and led 134 laps there on his way to the win in the spring. He will be the favorite, and his championship hopes could take a pivotal turn next Sunday. The winner of two of the last three races knows it can slip away quickly.
But he also knows that he has significantly cut the number of legitimate title contenders. And he’s great at Vegas. He has won twice there and finished second in the nine Next Gen races at the track.
He finished second a year ago (leading 129 laps) and was seventh in the spring (where he led 62 laps).
