It all came down to Game 162 to round out the 12-team MLB postseason field. The Astros won the American League West (with the worst full-season record by a playoff team in MLB history) and the Phillies held off a late surge from the Diamondbacks to secure the final National League wild-card spot on the final day of the regular season. Despite going just 81-81, the division-champion Astros will get to host the White Sox for their wild-card series.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will host the Red Sox, the Braves will host the Phillies and the Padres will host the Cubs, with each best-of-three series beginning Tuesday. Let's rank the eight wild-card teams who'll play this week for the chance to reach the Division Series. Wild Card Opponent: vs.
White Sox (winner plays the Guardians) The Astros made it in with the worst full-season record by a playoff team in MLB history, winning the AL West over the Rangers by a game. Suddenly, they find themselves in a terrific position. They have 13 fewer wins than their No.
3 seed National League counterpart (the Braves), and they get to play a worse team in the wild-card round than Atlanta does. Depth issues have been a problem all year across the roster in Houston, which was a major reason general manager Dana Brown was let go in August. But they did hit the most home runs in MLB this year, and they have AL MVP favorite in Yordan Alvarez to mask some of their offensive issues, which are particularly obvious in an outfield that produced the lowest batting average and on-base percentage in MLB.
They’re short in the pitching staff, too, but they have Hunter Brown at the top of the rotation and closer Josh Hader — who had a 1.01 ERA while converting all 26 of his save opportunities — at the back end of the bullpen. Plus, their first-round opponent might have even bigger pitching questions than them… Wild Card Opponent: at Astros (winner plays the Guardians) Whatever happens from here, this year has been a greater success than anyone could have imagined on Chicago’s South Side. After three straight 100-loss seasons, including the worst season in modern baseball history two years ago, the White Sox are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021.
While they fell short of winning the AL Central after leading the division by three games entering the season’s final month (they went 12-13 while the Guardians went 17-8 in September), the White Sox will get to play the worst team in the playoff field and will enter the postseason with some momentum after winning each of their last three series of the year. Their young, all-or-nothing offense can mash. They ranked fifth in MLB in home runs — Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery all finished the year with more than 30 homers — though they also had the fifth-most strikeouts in the sport.
They’ll need those bats to get hot because there are serious questions both in their rotation, which ranked 26th in ERA, and a taxed bullpen that threw the most innings in MLB. Wild Card Opponent: at Braves (winner plays the Dodgers) Well, that was a lot more stressful than it needed to be! The Phillies led the Diamondbacks for the final wild-card spot by four games with five to play … and it still took until Game 162 for Philadelphia to clinch the final NL wild-card spot.
The Phillies’ offense was anemic in September, and Jesús Luzardo’s late-season injury certainly didn’t help matters, but they made it in. Considering where this year began (9-19 with their manager fired), it only seems fitting that the ending was also tense and uncomfortable. It's notable that they had to use Aaron Nola on Saturday and Zack Wheeler on Sunday to seal their spot in the postseason, considering so much of their advantage in a short series is the top of their rotation.
Being unable to line up Wheeler and uncertain of what Luzardo can provide (though he did throw a scoreless inning Sunday) will make life tougher for them against a Braves team that won the NL East and beat them nine out of 13 times during the regular season. But it was all hands on deck for the Phillies, who ultimately avoided what would have been a devastating collapse to reach the playoffs for a fifth straight year. Wild Card Opponent: at Yankees (winner plays the Rays) It’s hard to overstate just how much Willson Contreras means to this offense, so getting him back in the regular-season finale for the first time since he was hit by a pitch on the hand on Sept.
17 is a huge deal. Contreras ranked third among all qualified MLB players in OPS and hit 51% better than league average by wRC+; his next closest qualified teammate was Wilyer Abreu at 12% above league average. If Contreras is still aching, though, there will be even more pressure on Roman Anthony and deadline acquisition Adley Rutschman to help provide an offensive boost to a team that ranked last in MLB in runs scored in September (and 23rd for the season).
Luckily for the Red Sox, both Anthony and Rutschman have been playing well lately, and their pitching staff should keep them competitive against any team. The Boston bullpen had the lowest ERA in the sport this year, and the Red Sox rotation offers upside. Rookie Payton Tolle had a 2.59 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 59 innings over his last 10 starts of the season.
Sonny Gray went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA on the year, and Ranger Suarez had a 3.22 ERA. That trio could make life tough on the Yankees’ lineup in the wild-card series. Wild Card Opponent: at Padres (winner plays the Brewers) They have the National League MVP frontrunner in Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just put together a 40-40 season that will go down as one of the best in Cubs history.
His standout year was not enough, however, to end the Brewers’ reign atop the NL Central or to earn home-field advantage in the wild-card series. The Cubs' offense slowed down in September, but they still finished the year with the highest OPS in the sport. A significant reason for that was the second-half surge from Alex Bregman.
So, it had to feel great for Cubs fans to see Bregman go 4-for-4 with two home runs in the regular season finale, just a week after he suffered facial fractures when he was hit by a foul ball. The Cubs have another recent injury to monitor, after Kevin Gausman hurt his non-throwing shoulder while making a tag in his last start. Gausman's health adds to a growing list of concerns about a beleaguered Cubs pitching staff that had issues both in the rotation (18th in ERA) and bullpen (13th).
They do, however, have the best defense in baseball, and their offense is capable of outscoring any opponent they face. Wild Card Opponent: vs. Cubs (winner plays the Brewers) On July 23, the Padres were 50-53 with 7.4% playoff odds, according to FanGraphs.
Now, they’re hosting a wild-card series. It has been a tale of two halves for the San Diego offense, which was the worst in MLB before the break and has been one of the best since. It’s not hard to understand why.
Fernando Tatís Jr. had three home runs through his first 82 games and then launched 22 over his last 72. Jackson Merrill had a .628 OPS in the first half and a .908 OPS in the second half. Their best players look like superstars again, and their bullpen is the most overpowering unit in the sport.
They’ll need to rely on their relief arms, considering their rotation leaves a lot to be desired, but this is a team no one will want to see in October. They’ve been the best team in baseball since July 24 and will be a threat to anyone they face. That’s especially the case at home, where they went 51-30 this season.
Wild Card Opponent: vs. Red Sox (winner plays the Rays) I thought about bumping them further down this list, given the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Judge’s health. I don’t have to tell you how big of a deal it is if he can’t play or look right in the wild-card series.
They went 41-25 (.621) when he was in the lineup and 52-43 (.547) when he wasn’t. However, Ben Rice is looking more like the MVP contender he was early in the year, Austin Wells has improved at the plate, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is back from injury. Along with Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and deadline additions Heliot Ramos and Luis Garcia Jr., the Yankees may have just enough offense to survive and make a run even without a healthy Judge.
Most importantly, they’ll have AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried in the rotation. That’s a huge advantage in a wild-card series, even if Cole hasn’t looked quite so sharp lately. They’ll also have Carlos Rodón available, and Will Warren can shift to relief to assist a bullpen that has some real concerns.
Wild Card Opponent: vs. Phillies (winner plays the Dodgers) It’s unlikely he’ll win the National League Cy Young Award because Jacob Misiorowski exists, but we can’t overlook what Chris Sale is doing. At 37 years old, he had a 2.16 ERA and 200 strikeouts.
He is an ace in every sense of the word. But there’s a lot of pressure on Atlanta to win the game he starts. Tyler Mahle, who had a 1.99 ERA in nine starts for the Braves, was brilliant after getting traded to Atlanta at the deadline.
But he lacks the typical swing-and-miss stuff you’d like from a starter in October, and the rotation depth gets much thinner after the top two. Still, the Braves employ one of the best bullpens in baseball to help shorten games. And while the offense underwhelmed down the stretch, Ronald Acuña Jr. started to heat up at the right time, Matt Olson hit 41 home runs, Drake Baldwin was one of the best catchers in baseball, and Michael Harris II enjoyed a bounceback year.
This is the best team in the wild-card field — one that proved last year’s 76-win season was just a blip.
