Twenty days left. The margin for error is gone. It’s time to drill down on the teams in playoff contention.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’re including only those teams within five games of a playoff spot as of Tuesday morning. In future iterations, teams will be added and subtracted as they move into and out of the playoff picture. Here are our latest contender rankings, along with one X-factor on each team who could help swing the playoff races.
A 68-76 record would rank last in the NL Central. Lucky for the Twins, they’re in the AL Central. And while a lot of the attention is on recent outfield call-up Walker Jenkins, it’s shortstop Kaelen Culpepper who has been the team’s standout rookie so far.
Just when it seemed like we might have to start taking the Orioles more seriously, they went and lost six straight games, including two to the Rockies and four to the division-rival Red Sox. Utility man Coby Mayo, however, helped snap the skid with a two-homer game and is emerging as an important power threat as Pete Alonso cools off. Cal Quantrill has a 1.18 ERA in six starts (seven appearances) since the beginning of August.
It’s the lowest mark among all qualified MLB starters over that stretch, and it comes at an important time for the Rangers with Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Leiter injured. It was pretty much home run or bust for Cardinals prospect Joshua Báez in August, but he’s demonstrating more than that to start September. The rookie outfielder has hits in each of his first seven games of the month, including two homers and two doubles.
With second baseman Xavier Edwards hurt and All-Star shortstop Otto Lopez slowing down, Javier Sanoja has risen to the occasion. Sanoja is tied for the MLB lead in hits through the first week of September and has been on base a ton lately. He just … has to stay on base.
The Blue Jays hoped the additions of pitchers José Soriano and Spencer Arrighetti might help offset the departure of Kevin Gausman as they looked toward the future at the deadline. But it’s one of the prospects they got from the Cubs for Gausman who is making the biggest impact on the team's late-season playoff push. Since outfielder Brett Bateman was called up on Aug.
7, he leads the team in hits, batting average, runs scored and fWAR. For all the talk about rookies Parker Messick and Travis Bazzana in Cleveland, I’m not sure outfielder/DH Chase DeLauter has gotten his full due. He has been the Guardians’ best hitter since the start of August — he’s slashing .357/.427/.541 over that time with an OPS over 1.000 in his past 20 games — so his recent wrist sprain is worth monitoring.
The Guardians can ill afford to have DeLauter on the IL. With a dearth of starting options in Houston, Hayden Wesneski's return from Tommy John surgery has brought a needed boost. Since the beginning of August, Wesneski has the lowest ERA in the Astros’ rotation.
In his first game back from a flexor strain, starter Nick Pivetta fired five scoreless innings on Monday. That's a great sign for the rotation, which hasn’t gotten consistent production from deadline additions Casey Mize and Robbie Ray. While we're talking significant pitching boosts, Corbin Burnes is expected to make his 2026 debut on Tuesday.
The four-time All-Star hasn't pitched since June 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery just 11 starts into his six-year, $210 million contract with Arizona. The addition of Luis Castillo at the deadline has not provided much for a White Sox rotation that ranks 26th in MLB in ERA. That’s why the return of Davis Martin, one of the biggest All-Star snubs, could be huge if he can recapture his early-season form.
Martin fired 5.2 scoreless innings last Wednesday in his first start back from a blister issue. Adley Rutschman and Roman Anthony both get a mention here. After a dreadfully slow start to his Boston tenure, Rutschman has homered three times in his last four games.
Meanwhile, Anthony was on fire in his first five games back from the IL (10-for-22, five XBH) before cooling off in Baltimore. Still, the Red Sox have won five straight, and they're going to be tough to slow down if they can get both players going at the same time. You could count the entire Cubs pitching staff as X-factors, but after adding starters Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman at the deadline, the biggest question in Chicago is high-leverage relief.
Who are the arms the Cubs will trust late in games when it matters most? And could injured pitchers Justin Steele or Edward Cabrera figure into that mix before year's end? The team has three more weeks to sort that out.
The Phillies decided against adding a fifth starter at the deadline, despite Andrew Painter holding an ERA over 6.00 at the time. Since then, Painter has a 3.15 ERA over his past six starts. The second-half improvements of both Painter and Aaron Nola (who has a 2.31 ERA over his past eight starts) have helped ease the concern about the depth of this rotation.
We all know Aaron Judge's health matters more than anything else for the Yankees going forward. But as the Yankees welcome their captain back, he’s going to need some help to get this offense back above league average. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been a lot more productive over his past 15 games, and if he can keep that going, that might take some pressure off of Judge.
Has Freddy Peralta started to figure things out? After an inauspicious start to his Rays tenure, Peralta has allowed just one run over his past two starts. He has another test Tuesday, but he’s trending in the right direction.
The Dodgers have received little production from their corner outfielders this year, but Teoscar Hernandez seems to be turning a corner. He has 13 hits, including five extra-base hits, over his last eight games, and he just launched a three-run homer at 112.6 mph off the bat on Monday. Seven of his nine hardest-hit balls this season have come in September.
Which qualified NL starter has the lowest ERA since the trade deadline? That would be Tyler Mahle, who has a 1.24 ERA in six starts since joining Atlanta and is quieting the criticism the Braves received for their quiet deadline. The Braves lack depth in the rotation behind ace Chris Sale, so it’ll be interesting to see if Mahle can keep this going into October.
With Kyle Harrison looking more vulnerable of late, who else in the Brewers’ rotation might step up as a potential Game 2 starter behind ace Jacob Misiorowski? The answer appears to be Logan Henderson, who has a 1.67 ERA over his last four starts and a 2.20 ERA over his last 11 starts. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 15 starts this season, and he’s showing why the Brewers made him off limits at the deadline.
