Back in July, I walked up closely to the table where UCLA coach Bob Chesney sat. The occasion was Big Ten media days, and we were still all weeks away from the start of this now-memorable 2026 season when I told Chesney my most closely held belief about the modern game: You’re about to watch the most competitive season of college football ever. It has never been harder to win than it is in 2026.
"I agree with you," he said. "Ultimately," he said, "the margins are thin, and that’s what you’re pointing toward. It’s not easy to be in a position where you just walk out and expect to win a football game.
Doesn’t really happen anymore in my mind." Fittingly, UCLA is one of just three undefeated programs left. Fittingly, Chesney’s team has proven best prepared to weather the avalanche of losses teams have endured at a rate we hadn’t seen since Earl Campbell won the Heisman Trophy at Texas. In fact, for the first time since 2007, AP top-2 teams lost to unranked opponents in three consecutive weeks.
Miami is undefeated. Utah is defeated. The Bruins are undefeated.
And that’s the list of unbeatens among the 138 that play FBS football. That's it. FOX Sports college football researcher extraordinaire Dylan Tracy-Lindenbaum dug deep to help put into context just how funky this fortnight of football has been in our beloved sport.
What this means for me is twofold: Making this top 25 each and every week has never been more difficult, and I am so terribly grateful that we will get to see 12 teams enter into the College Football Playoff to compete for the national title. Week 8 game: 13-10 win vs. IowaWeek 9 game: At Indiana The Golden Gophers’ walk-off field goal to beat Iowa in a rock fight means they've got the Little Brown Jug (Minnesota-Michigan rivalry trophy) and now Floyd of Rosedale back in their trophy cabinet.
Minnesota’s performance gave the Gophers their first win against a ranked opponent this season, but they’ll need wins against Indiana, UCLA and, later, Northwestern to ensure their participation in the CFP for the first time ever. Stat to know: Defensive back Zack Harden led Minnesota with 12 total tackles (six solo) and a sack against Iowa quarterback Hank Brown. Odds to make CFP: +5500 (tied for 28th)Odds to win national title: +125000 (25th) Week 8 game: 31-10 win vs.
Washington StateWeek 9 game: vs. Texas State They were late pulling away, but the Broncos did ultimately pull away, and that is what I expected from a team that has put itself into a great position to represent the Group of Six in the CFP for the second time in three years. Stat to know: Running back Dylan Riley had 128 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries (9.85 yards per carry).
Odds to make CFP: +115 (12th)Odds to win national title: +25000 (23rd) Week 8 game: 39-3 win vs. Iowa StateWeek 9 game: At Texas Tech I can’t really say Iowa State was ever in this game, and I can’t say that Arizona isn’t an actual threat to win the Big 12 championship. But I’m certain that the Cyclones have played better football this season, and Arizona looked as fierce as Iowa State looked bad.
What’s clear is that when quarterback Noah Fifita is playing great football, Arizona is a Big 12 title challenger. However, next week, it gets to prove it with what feels like a CFP play-out game against Texas Tech. Stat to know: Noah Fifita completed 27 of 34 passes (79.4%) for 308 yards and two touchdowns in the blowout win against Iowa State.
Odds to make CFP: +500 (20th)Odds to win national title: +17500 (tied for 20th) Week 8 game: ByeWeek 9 game: vs. Virginia Stat to know: Quarterback Gio Lopez is one of just two FBS quarterbacks with at least 23 total touchdowns and only one interception this season, joining Darian Mensah. Odds to make CFP: +180 (14th)Odds to win national title: +8000 (tied for 15th) Week 8 game: 59-20 win vs.
CalWeek 9 game: At Syracuse The Mustangs put together their most convincing win over a Power Four team all season. The problem is that it was against Cal, which isn’t very good. Still, SMU has a chance to finish the regular season with two ranked wins against Wake Forest and Notre Dame.
A 10-win season against that schedule might be enough to earn the Mustangs a CFP bid, even without a spot in what could be the ACC’s final championship game for the foreseeable future. Stat to know: Quarterback Kevin Jennings went 16 of 23 for 223 passing yards and three passing scores in SMU's win over Cal. He is now SMU’s all-time leader in passing touchdowns, with 74 in his career.
Odds to make CFP: +450 (19th)Odds to win national title: +12500 (19th) Week 8 game: 42-14 win vs. RutgersWeek 9 game: At Oregon Northwestern has to be considered a College Football Playoff contender, with its only loss coming by a single score on the road against Indiana. Outside that defeat, the Wildcats have beaten every opponent by double digits behind a stout rushing attack and a mistake-averse passing game led by quarterback Aidan Chiles.
Northwestern rushed for 283 yards against Rutgers, while Chiles threw his first interception of the season. Stat to know: Aidan Chiles accounted for five touchdowns — three passing and two rushing — in the win over Rutgers. He became just the third Northwestern player to record multiple games with at least five touchdowns in a single season, joining C.J.
Bacher (2007) and Zak Kustok (2001). Odds to make CFP: +650 (tied for 22nd)Odds to win national title: +20000 (22nd) Week 8 game: 38-17 win vs. AuburnWeek 9 game: Bye This was the LSU team I expected to see all season.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt completed 71.1% of his passes for 387 yards and three touchdowns, while defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s unit held Auburn to just 67 rushing yards against a team that needs to run the ball to be successful. The LSU team I watched Saturday showed the talent and execution needed to win a championship. Stat to know: Quarterback Sam Leavitt threw three touchdown passes and added a rushing score against Auburn, tying his career high for total touchdowns in a game.
Odds to make CFP: -160 (seventh)Odds to win national title: +1000 (sixth) Week 8 game: 57-24 win vs. ColoradoWeek 9 game: At Iowa State That makes five games of Oklahoma State scoring 39 points or more and six-straight games of quarterback Drew Mestemaker throwing for 300 yards or more. With BYU and Texas Tech each taking losses for the first time on Saturday — and in Big 12 play — the Cowboys moved into a five-way tie for second place in the league.
And that looks like their only way through to the CFP, as a win against Oregon earlier this season means less and less with each passing week. Stat to know: Quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 386 yards and four touchdowns, while Caleb Hawkins contributed 192 scrimmage yards in the Cowboys' win. Odds to make CFP: +600 (21st)Odds to win national title: +17500 (tied for 20th) Week 8 game: ByeWeek 9 game: At Arkansas Stat to know: Since 2000, Austin Simmons is the only Missouri quarterback to throw at least 14 touchdowns with two or fewer interceptions.
He’s averaging 253.3 passing yards per game while completing 63% of his passes this season. Odds to make CFP: +700 (24th)Odds to win national title: +10000 (18th) Week 8 game: 21-13 loss vs. UtahWeek 9 game: Bye The Cougars dropped their second game of the season, their second to a conference foe and their second to a top-15 team on the road.
Houston has a great argument for being one of the best two-loss teams in the country, given those variables. However, the Cougars will have a tremendously tough time earning an invitation to the CFP as the third-best team in the Big 12. Stat to know: Quarterback Conner Weigman has 26 touchdowns responsible, the third-most of any player in FBS.
Only Michael Hawkins Jr. and Braden Atkinson have more, with 27 each. Odds to make CFP: +650 (tied for 22nd)Odds to win national title: +30000 (24th) Week 8 game: 34-27 loss vs. TexasWeek 9 game: vs.
Auburn The Rebels fought back from a 21-point deficit but ran out of time on the road against the Longhorns. Their losses are to Florida and Texas — two top-15 teams here — and they still have one of the best quarterbacks in the sport with under two minutes to play in the game in Trinidad Chambliss. Stat to know: Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss recorded a season-low 89.6 passer rating against Texas.
He completed 25 of 52 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions — the first time he's been picked off more than once in a single game this season. Odds to make CFP: +100 (11th)Odds to win national title: +2000 (ninth) Week 8 game: 39-31 2OT loss vs. UCFWeek 9 game: vs.
Arizona State The end of this game needs its own documentary. I’m not kidding. Put the coaches and players in the chair, mount the boom mic and play the Netflix theme music because the end of BYU-UCF is stranger than fiction.
BYU lost, sure. But that loss makes it all but impossible for the Cougars to qualify for the CFP without a Big 12 championship to point to on their resume. That loss also doesn’t do anything to help Notre Dame’s cause.
Stat to know: Bear Bachmeier rushed and threw for a touchdown against UCF, the 11th time he’s done that over the past two seasons. No Big 12 quarterback has done so more times than him in that span, and only Auburn's Byrum Brown has more (12). Odds to make CFP: +170 (13th)Odds to win national title: +7000 (tied for 13th) Week 8 game: 37-24 loss vs.
Cincinnati Week 9 game: vs. Arizona Texas Tech’s expensive defense couldn’t stop Cincinnati’s blue-collar rushing attack. The Red Raiders surrendered 255 rushing yards, including 173 to running back Cole Tabb, in their first loss of the season.
You’re not going to win many games allowing 6.4 yards per carry — especially when your offense converts just three of 15 third-down attempts, as Texas Tech did Saturday. Nothing about this team screams Big 12 champion except its record. And right now, that record has the Red Raiders tied for second in the conference standings if the season ended today.
Stat to know: Quarterback Will Hammond failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season and for the first time since Oct. 11, 2025, against Kansas. The loss to Cincinnati snapped the Red Raiders’ nine-game winning streak against unranked opponents.
Odds to make CFP: +300 (17th)Odds to win national title: +8000 (tied for 15th) Week 8 game: 27-24 loss vs. South CarolinaWeek 9 game: Bye The Vols blew a double-digit lead to South Carolina late, in large part because the offense stalled on five out of six drives. In fact, in those six drives, Josh Heupel’s team managed to score just three points and turned the ball over on downs twice.
Tennessee’s losses have come against teams who presented outstanding front sevens capable of getting stops against the Vol rushing attack on third-and-short. This does not look like a CFP team without that ability to run on downs when everyone in the stadium knows you’re gonna. Stat to know: DeSean Bishop has 637 rushing yards since Week 5, the most of any FBS player in that span.
Over the last four games for the Vols, he’s averaging 159.3 rushing yards per game with seven rushing scores. Odds to make CFP: +320 (18th)Odds to win national title: +6500 (12th) Week 8 game: 34-27 win vs. Ole MissWeek 9 game: vs.
Mississippi State The Jekyll and Hyde routine on the Forty Acres continues with the Longhorns showing an ability to take a three-score lead against a quality opponent. First Ohio State, now Ole Miss. And while quarterback Arch Manning looked like he got his mojo back, the erratic behavior of the offense is decidedly manic, unpredictable and occasionally breathtaking.
Texas might make the CFP — unless this offense fails to settle and center. Stat to know: Despite the win, quarterback Arch Manning threw two interceptions for the second time in the last three games, raising his season total to seven picks. He went 18-for-30 for 212 yards and one passing touchdown, along with two rushing scores.
Odds to make CFP: -135 (ninth)Odds to win national title: +1400 (eighth) Week 8 game: ByeWeek 9 game: vs. Georgia Stat to know: Running back Jadan Baugh has 763 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns through Florida’s first seven games. Since 2000, no Gator has recorded more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns through the team’s first seven games of a season.
Odds to make CFP: +220 (16th)Odds to win national title: +4500 (11th) Week 8 game: 31-20 win vs. Texas A&MWeek 9 game: Bye The Crimson Tide managed this win without star tailback EJ Crowell or wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams. In their absence, quarterback Keelon Russell still threw for more than 300 yards.
Wide receiver Rico Scott became the big play player the Tide needed with six catches for 156 yards. The Tide might be one of the 12 best teams in the sport, but that’s all, and at Alabama, that’s not enough. Stat to know: After throwing for three touchdowns against Texas A&M, Keelon Russell has been responsible for 18 touchdowns since Week 3, tied with LSU's Sam Leavitt for the most of any SEC player in that span.
Odds to make CFP: -280 (sixth)Odds to win national title: +1100 (seventh) Week 8 game: 21-13 win vs. HoustonWeek 9 game: At Cincinnati In its first opportunity to play against a top-25 team, Utah proved itself to be the Big 12 team with staying power. It is one of just three remaining undefeated teams left in the sport and looks more like making the CFP in a season where rival BYU once ranked in the top 5, and Texas Tech had spent most of the season ranked near the top 10.
Stat to know: Quarterback Devon Dampier accounted for 354 total yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in Utah's win over Houston. Odds to make CFP: -150 (eighth)Odds to win national title: +3500 (tenth) Week 8 game: 34-17 win vs. VanderbiltWeek 9 game: Bye Will Stein’s Wildcats handily beat Vanderbilt in a changing of the new-old money guard without the help of their best running back, CJ Baxter, and one of their best wide receivers, Nic Anderson.
That was expected. In much the same way that Vanderbilt elevated itself fast with a change in head coach and flip of the entire roster in 2024 and 2025, Kentucky is doing the same thing in the SEC before our eyes. Whether they can hold their one-loss record for the next five weeks is outstanding.
However, the truth is, Kentucky is closer to making the CFP for the first time than USC is, and yes, I’m absolutely pointing that out to emphasize just how fast flips in fortunes can happen and just how patient some programs choose to be. Stat to know: Quarterback Kenny Minchey posted a 151.4 passer rating, completing 73.1% of his passes (19 for 26) for 7.81 yards per attempt and no interceptions, lifting his season mark to a 151.6 passer rating with a 14-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Odds to make CFP: +190 (15th)Odds to win national title: +7000 (tied for 13th) Week 8 game: 28-10 win vs.
Michigan StateWeek 9 game: vs. Nevada Coach Bob Chesney’s Bruins have gone from a feel-good story, to a ranked team, to a College Football Playoff contender, to one of the three best teams in the Big Ten and half a game ahead of Ohio State and Indiana for a spot in what is likely to be the last Big Ten championship game. And they’ve done it by holding Big Ten teams in check.
Only Purdue — yes, that Purdue — has scored more than 15 points on UCLA all year. A look at their schedule shows zero ranked teams left to play, which means the Bruins have a genuine shot at running the table. They’re stout enough to make a deep run into the CFP, too.
Stat to know: Running back Wayne Knight finished with 15 carries for 56 rushing yards one rushing score. With that performance, he joins Florida's Jadan Baugh and Duke's Nate Sheppard as the only FBS running backs with 13 or more scrimmage touchdowns on the year. Odds to make CFP: -115 (10th)Odds to win national title: +8000 (tied for 15th) Week 8 game: 13-6 OT win vs.
MichiganWeek 9 game: vs. Minnesota The Hoosiers' offense looked incredibly inept against Michigan's defense. Indiana converted just four of 14 third downs, and quarterback Josh Hoover threw his first interception of the season.
More concerning for Indiana fans is that these close games are becoming a trend. Indiana has played three straight games decided on the final possession, two of them against unranked opponents. Look, this team can — and probably will — make the CFP.
But it hasn't looked like a team capable of winning back-to-back national championships. Stat to know: Despite not completing a pass in the second half, Josh Hoover led Indiana to its first win in Ann Arbor since 1967. Odds to make CFP: -1250 (tied for second)Odds to win national title: +850 (fifth) Week 8 game: ByeWeek 9 game: vs.
Navy Stat to know: Quarterback CJ Carr has 31 completions of 20-plus yards, which is the most of any Notre Dame signal-caller through the team’s first seven games since 2000. Odds to make CFP: -800 (fourth)Odds to win national title: +470 (second) Week 8 game: ByeWeek 9 game: vs. Florida Stat to know: Quarterback Gunner Stockton had an 11-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in Georgia’s first five games of the season, but has a 3-3 ratio in the Bulldogs' last two games against Alabama and Auburn.
Odds to make CFP: -1250 (tied for second)Odds to win national title: +420 (first) Week 8 game: ByeWeek 9 game: At USC Stat to know: Receiver Jeremiah Smith recorded his 39th career receiving touchdown in the Buckeyes' Week 7 win over Indiana, tying Braylon Edwards for the most in Big Ten history. Odds to make CFP: -750 (fifth)Odds to win national title: +500 (third) Week 8 game: 52-23 win vs. PittWeek 9 game: At North Carolina Miami took over the No.
1 spot in these rankings in large part because Georgia insisted on losing it last week. Against Pittsburgh, the Hurricanes made the most of their first opportunity as the sport’s top-ranked team, showing they’re more than capable of holding onto it. Quarterback Darian Mensah looked like a Heisman candidate, throwing for 387 yards and four touchdowns, while receiver Malachi Toney hauled in 16 passes for 194 yards and three scores.
Miami looked flawed last week. This week, the Hurricanes looked every bit like a national championship contender. Stat to know: Malachi Toney joined Calvin Johnson Jr. (Georgia Tech, 2006) and Torry Holt (NC State, 1998) as the only ACC players in the last 30 years to have three games of 150-plus receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in the same season.
Odds to make CFP: -5000 (first)Odds to win national title: +700 (fourth)
