After weeks of "College Football Playoff or bust" for teams like USC, who are the sleeper College Football Playoff teams that no one's talking about? In year three of the 12-team CFP format, the chances of earning a playoff bid continue to grow. While powerhouses like Texas and Ohio State seem like a playoff lock after Week 3, there's plenty of time for programs like UCLA or Florida to make its first CFP.
Here are FOX Sports' Joel Klatt's top 10 teams outside the top 10 to reach the CFP, as revealed on "The Joel Klatt Show". Klatt's thoughts: "Of the 10 teams, I'm going to be real honest. I'm having a harder time with USC, specifically because of how their defense has played.
I'm officially concerned about the defense. They gave up 30 points to Louisiana, 35 to Rutgers… it's the middle of that defensive line, their tackling was not good. It's all the same problems that we've lamented for a number of years with Lincoln Riley's teams at USC, and even going back to Oklahoma.
It looks like they're just going to have to sit there and outscore teams, again. Now, can they do that? Probably.
Can they do that against top 10 opponents? Probably not. "They lost their star freshman Trent Mosley… and they're banged up at secondary.
The offense looks really good. I don't think that you can look at this team and think to yourself ‘yeah, they’re definitely going to do it,' but they're outside of the top 10 right now. They've got the talent if they can shore up some things on the defensive side.
They have a monster game this week against Oregon. They've got Washington. They've got to go to Penn State.
Host Ohio State. They've got to go to Indiana… I think that they need to be a 10-2 team." Klatt's thoughts: "Tennessee is taking care of business. They haven't played anybody, and you know how I feel about teams that haven't played anybody, but they've done what they should against the teams they've played.
They beat Georgia Tech by three touchdowns, and they've been running the football. This isn't just Tennessee throwing deep and being a pass-first team. "They've protected their true freshman quarterback, Faizon Brandon, and done it well.
They're number one in the Power Four in rushing the football at nearly 300 yards per game. I think that's exactly what you should be doing with a guy like Faizon Brandon — you're not putting it all on his shoulders early. It's tough to win as an inexperienced player at quarterback, but when you have a run game, you can insert yourself into the operation, and it can do a lot.
Klatt's thoughts: "I've had Utah in my top 10 each of the last two weeks. There's a lot of people saying Utah's opponents are weak. So is Georgia's.
Nobody's playing quality opponents right now outside of the Texas–Ole Miss game. It's not an excuse, and I'd rather see better games, but what should you do if you're a great team playing a schedule like that? You should be dominant, and that's exactly what Utah has done.
They've been the most impressive team in the Big 12 thus far, hands down. "If you don't like their opponents, go look at the data on how they control games and their overall efficiency. "Utah's top 10 in the country in scoring offense and scoring defense.
We've got an experienced quarterback in Devon Dampier, who's obviously talented. The Big 12 is wide open. I no longer feel like Texas Tech is head and shoulders above everybody after watching them against Houston.
I think they're talented, but I don't think they're above a Utah or a BYU. Utah only has two ranked opponents left: home against Houston, then the Holy War against BYU. The winner of that game is likely in the Big 12 championship game." Klatt's thoughts: "Michigan is 18th in the country right now, and I know we all kind of threw them off the cliff after the Western Michigan game.
But they won that game, and Western Michigan isn't a bad opponent — they beat Oklahoma. They fiddled around in the first half last week and had a great second half, and what I'm starting to see from Michigan is a team that gets better and learns its own identity every quarter. "What I liked about last week's game: they got Andrew Marsh going.
He's now a sophomore, and I thought he was outstanding as a true freshman. For Bryce Underwood, having those targets he trusts, the JJ Buchanans and Andrew Marshes of the world, is a big deal. Marsh went 10 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown.
"Now they've got a legitimate one-two punch to throw to, so you can always incorporate the quarterback into the run game, which they didn't need to do last week. Their defense is outstanding, one of the best in the country — they allowed only two touchdowns last week, and both were circumstantial: a short-yardage play-fake and a fumble that gave UTEP the ball in the red zone. The chances a team just drives the length of the field on Michigan are pretty low.
If they can play that field-position style of game and Bryce Underwood continues to improve like he has, Michigan could be one of those teams that makes a run." Klatt's thoughts: "Let's not forget Iowa beat everybody's darling last year in Vanderbilt in the bowl game. This is a very good program. They're consistent.
They know their philosophy. They don't need extraordinary quarterback play. They know they can win with defense and the run game, and that's exactly what they're doing.
It was Northern Iowa, but they scored 55 points last week, and 55 points is 55 points. "Their defense is number one in the country so far, allowing only one touchdown through three games. They're running the rock at 268 yards per game, which is number one in the country, at 7.5 yards per carry.
"Iowa plays Michigan on Saturday. The winner of that game gets thrust into the conversation of a non-top-10 team that could make a run to the playoff. They also play Ohio State right after that, plus a road trip to Washington.
If they go 2-1 in those three games, even splitting Michigan and Ohio State somehow, they're right there. Their last six are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska — they could win all of those. Watch out for Iowa." Klatt's thoughts: "I know all of us were watching LSU and Ole Miss, and rightly so — that was a great game.
But Florida is off to a very good start, and the offense looks excellent. Buster Faulkner, the OC, has Aaron Philo at quarterback and two really good receivers in Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson. The reason I love this team right now is Jadan Baugh.
Who wants to play against Jadan Baugh? He's one of the best backs in the country, and he's outstanding. "Their defense isn't great – they gave up a lot of points against Auburn – but they also had seven sacks, so it might be a high-risk, high-reward style defense that's trying to get stops and give the ball back to the offense.
"They've got Ole Miss this Saturday, and Florida is favored. This has all the elements of a letdown game for Ole Miss after last weekend. If Florida wins that game, look at the rest of their schedule — you could make a strong case this team is a 10-2 team.
They've got at Missouri, at Texas, Georgia, then Oklahoma and Kentucky. You could beat Ole Miss and still lose to Texas and Georgia and be a 10-2 team. I'm high on this Florida team, and this weekend tells us everything." Klatt's thoughts: "Oregon is this year's Clemson, everyone's throwing that out there.
I'm not ready to go that far. I think Oregon got a giant wake-up call early in the season, and now Dan Lanning can go fix some things. "I don't love that they're dealing with a lot of injuries, Jeremiah McClellan broke his foot in pregame warmups last week, and Jamari Johnson hasn't played the last couple weeks, with his status up in the air for this week's game against USC.
But there's still a lot of talent on this team, and Dan Lanning has gotten better every year. "Do I think they're going to fall off a cliff? The answer is no.
This team will right the ship, I'm confident in that. If they win this week against USC and get back on track, they could easily be a 7-1 team going to Ohio State in November. Oregon is absolutely going to be in this mix." Klatt's thoughts: "Jeff Brohm is one of the best coaches out there in America.
We talk a lot about guys who do the most with the most — we don't talk enough about guys who get the most out of less. Brohm is one of those guys. He did it at Purdue, and he's starting to do it at Louisville.
"They made it through the Ole Miss–SMU stretch, the tough part of their schedule, and split those games — namely beating SMU, so now they're on a collision course with Miami in the ACC championship game. Lincoln Kienholz is playing really well, and I like the run game — they got it going against SMU. Isaac Brown, along with Keyjuan Brown, combined for 230 yards on 20 carries and three touchdowns.
That was excellent. "They don't have to play Miami again, and there's no ranked opponent left on their schedule — Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, Syracuse, Stanford, Georgia Tech, UNC, Pitt and Kentucky to finish. Kentucky actually looks like their toughest remaining game.
If I had to pick one team from this list that's almost definitely making a run, it's Louisville." Klatt's thoughts: "If we weren't talking about Trinidad Chambliss, we'd be talking about Kamario Taylor. Have you watched him play? He's outstanding.
I don't want to see him if I'm an opponent. "I think their schedule is tough, and I don't have a high degree of confidence they run the table and get into the playoff, but it's possible when you've got a quarterback like that. They went down 16-0 at South Carolina and roared back, they're now 3-0.
Mississippi State had lost nine of their last 10 SEC road games before that. "Their quarterback gives them not just a chance, but belief, which is a big part of what these teams need to make a playoff push. Taylor's the real deal — 12 total touchdowns already in just three games.
The schedule is very tough, though — they face three top-10 teams in their next five games. But with Taylor, who knows?" Klatt's thoughts: "Watch out for UCLA. We talked about this in the preseason — this was a team we all had our eye on, because their coach is real, their quarterback is real, and some of the players who came with them from James Madison are real players.
"Bob Chesney is a heck of a football coach, and they're off to a three-zero start. They beat Cal, San Diego State and Purdue, all by at least two possessions. It wasn't always pretty, but you're trying to turn an entire program into a winning one, and this is the Chesney-at-JMU mold.
"Nico Iamaleava has been very good — he threw for 275 yards and ran for 50 last week, and they ran for 369 yards as a team against Purdue. UCLA is number two in the Power Four in rushing this season at 287 yards per game. That's real.
"UCLA goes to Eugene in three weeks, and I believe in Oregon, but what's the state of Oregon's roster with these injuries? Could UCLA go up there and knock them off? Even if they don't, with the way they've played and the way they run the football, there's a good chance they could be looking at their last two games — at Michigan and home against USC — as a 9-1 team.
Win one of those, and you're 10-2 and likely going to the playoff."
