This year's version of the Red River Rivalry has arrived. That, and Matt Rhule gets another crack at beating a ranked foe. Here's what I'm wagering for college football Week 6.
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An undefeated Big Ten catchup, featuring the defending champs against a Nebraska team hoping to finally break through. Matt Rhule’s Nebraska team has yet to beat a ranked opponent and the program’s losing streak against AP Top 25 teams dates back to September 2016. Sadly, that losing streak against ranked teams won’t end this weekend.
Indiana’s program has plenty of qualities that make it a winner, but No. 1 is that it doesn't beat itself. The Hoosiers do not turn the ball over and don’t commit penalties.
That’s important when it comes to winning a road game. The Indiana offense continues to control the line of scrimmage. It is 36th in successful rush rate and 15th in yards before contact.
The offensive line is first in the country in pressure rate, although to be fair, it has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. Quarterback Josh Hoover is not Fernando Mendoza and this is his first road start for the Hoosiers, but the coaching staff appears to have fixed his biggest issue — turnovers. He has no interceptions this season.
I worry about a few matchups for the Cornhuskers' defense vs. the Indiana offense. Nebraska’s defense doesn’t stop the runner behind the line of scrimmage all that often. It is ranked 74th in tackle success rate and allows a ton of completions that end up in a first down.
The raw numbers are great though. First on third down and 15th in yards per play. However, Nebraska has faced zero good offenses in five games.
Nebraska’s offense has taken one of the biggest positive jumps from last year to this year. It is eighth in points per drive and has top-25 success rates in both the pass and the run. However, I worry the Huskers are not dynamic enough to overcome this Indiana defense.
Nebraska runs the ball and throws it short. It is 122nd in the country with 5.5 air yards per target. A majority of its pass attempts go to the slot or the running back.
Indiana’s defense is not as sharp as last season, but like any elite unit, if it has an idea of what you’re doing, success follows. I worry Indiana’s defense will have a beat on what Nebraska is trying to do. Lastly — back to the top.
Beating yourself. Nebraska is 123rd in penalties per game and its offensive line is averaging over three a game. You’re just not winning many games against a team like Indiana committing a ton of penalties.
I have two bets for this game. First — how is Oklahoma going to score in this game? The answer is it won't.
Oklahoma’s offense is the most disappointing unit in the country this season. It is 112th in yards per play and points per drive on offense. It is 127th in rushing success rate and isn't much better at passing the football.
Quarterback John Mateer has been awful and even worse against any bit of resistance from an opposing defense. The Sooners have played three teams with a defensive efficiency of 21 or better, including New Mexico (which has been good on defense this season). They’ve scored 10 against Michigan, 14 against New Mexico and just 13 against Georgia.
On top of all of this is Oklahoma's offensive line injury concerns, as multiple guys might be out. Texas has an outstanding defense, with one of the best pass rush groups in the sport. Unless the Longhorns forget how to play defense or get fooled by multiple Oklahoma trick plays, I don’t see the Sooners scoring much.
I'm taking the Under on the Oklahoma team total. My second wager for this game is on Mateer's rushing attempts. My only hesitation is Oklahoma deciding to bench him at some point in this game.
He had 13 rushing attempts against Michigan and 15 against Georgia. He had 14 against Texas last season. Every big game the Sooners play, against a good opponent, he rushes the ball more often.
Makes sense as Oklahoma tries to use his legs to create some explosive plays. Also, sacks count as rush attempts.
