Did anybody see Indiana winning the Big Ten last year, let alone the national championship? A dark horse always emerges in college football — it's just a matter of whether you see it coming. Will it be a team with a favorable schedule?
A transfer-filled roster? A squad with returning starters and a chip on its shoulder? Or a new coach in a new place?
Let's take a look at which sleeper teams can win their conferences in 2026. Or, dare we even say, make a run at a national championship. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners.
If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. The Outlook: Last season, a 7-5 Duke team walked away with the ACC crown.
If that proved anything, it's that this year's conference race is completely up for grabs. In Year 1 under James Franklin, there is a path for the Virginia Tech Hokies to win the ACC title. Bringing in the No.
4 transfer class in the ACC and returning the fourth-most production in the conference, including 14 starters, should help Franklin tremendously. Everyone knows about his big game struggles at Penn State, but in his first season at Virginia Tech, that shouldn't be as big of a concern. The Hokies' biggest games this year are on the road against Clemson and Miami.
If they can split those two matchups, they could be in really good shape to play in the ACC Championship, as the remainder of the schedule is light. Biggest Games: Week 6 vs. Georgia Tech, Week 8 @ Clemson, Week 12 @ Miami Player to Watch: The former No.
1 tight end in the Class of 2024 transferred with Franklin from Penn State. Reynolds was the No. 4 tight end in the transfer portal after posting 26 catches for 257 yards during his sophomore season with the Nittany Lions.
Franklin loves to feature his tight ends, so expect that to continue at Virginia Tech, with Reynolds serving as his top option. The Outlook: An experienced coach bringing in 23 of his former players, combined with a very favorable schedule, is a recipe for success. After a disappointing season last year, Penn State hired Matt Campbell from Iowa State.
Campbell landed the No. 4 overall transfer class and the top class in the Big Ten. The former Iowa State head coach posted a 72-55 (.567) record in Ames, recording eight winning seasons and leading the program to its first double-digit winning season in school history.
Penn State’s schedule is incredibly favorable, featuring five of the Big Ten’s worst defenses from last year, including the bottom three. This lines up perfectly for Campbell and the Nittany Lions to make a serious push for the conference title game. Joel Klatt also thinks Penn State was one of the biggest winners of the Big Ten's 2026 schedule draw.
Biggest Games: Week 6 vs. USC, Week 7 @ Michigan, Week 10 @ Washington Player to Watch: Hansen was the Cyclones' leading rusher last year, finishing with 952 yards on 188 carries. He ended the 2025 season with five straight 100-yard rushing games.
In 2024, Hansen rushed for 752 yards and 13 touchdowns for Iowa State. Now, he's following his coach to Penn State, giving the Nittany Lions another game-breaking option in the backfield. The Outlook: Somebody has to dethrone the back-to-back SEC champions, right?
Year two of John Mateer — who was looking like a Heisman contender before his hand injury last season — could have Oklahoma lifting the SEC title in Atlanta. The Sooners return the second-most starters in college football with 14. Six of those returning players are back on that Sooners' defense, which arguably could have been the most disruptive defense in the nation and ranked No.
1 in the SEC last season. The Sooners allowed just 15.5 points and 272.5 yards per game, had the most sacks (45) and most tackles for loss (99). With Brent Venables dialing up a defense that can cause havoc, and a Heisman-caliber quarterback returning to lead the offense, the Sooners could very well claim the top spot in the SEC.
Biggest Games: Week 2 @ Michigan, Week 4 @ Georgia, Week 5 vs. Texas (neutral field), Week 11 vs. Ole Miss, Week 12 vs.
Texas A&M Player to Watch: Mateer’s top target returns with him. In his sophomore season, Sategna was fourth in the SEC in receiving yards and led the Sooners in all receiving categories, hauling in 67 catches for 965 yards and eight touchdowns. He earned second-team All-SEC honors as both a receiver and an all-purpose player.
Sategna recorded 100+ receiving yards in four games and led the Sooners in receiving yards eight times. As Oklahoma’s primary punt returner, he also racked up 318 yards, the third-most in the SEC. The Outlook: Kenny Dillingham isn’t new to being the dark horse and winning the conference.
That’s exactly what Arizona State did in 2024 on its way to a College Football Playoff appearance. Dillingham had running back Cam Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt then. Now, neither of them are playing for the Sun Devils, but Dillingham knows how to lead an explosive offense, and he's reloaded with talent through the transfer portal.
The Sun Devils brought in two of the top four receivers in the portal in Reed Harris (Boston College) and Omarion Miller (Colorado), along with four-star quarterback Cutter Boley (Kentucky). Biggest Games: Week 2 @ Texas A&M, Week 7 @ Texas Tech, Week 13 vs. Arizona Player to Watch: Miller broke out in a big way for Colorado, becoming its top target last season.
He posted 808 yards and eight touchdowns on 45 catches, earning himself All-Big 12 second team honors. When he entered the transfer portal, he was rated the fourth-best receiver available. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound receiver had 1,258 yards and 10 touchdowns in three years at Colorado.
The Outlook: South Florida made a splash hire with Brian Hartline, Ohio State’s former wide receivers coach and offensive coordinator. Hartline, known for his recruiting, hit the ground running at USF, bringing in the top transfer class in the AAC. With some of the conference’s top coaches having left for new jobs this year and USF facing a favorable schedule, the race for the top spot is wide open.
Hartline and the Bulls have a real chance to make a run at the conference title. Biggest Games: Week 2 @ Army, Week 11 vs. Memphis, Week 13 vs.
Tulane Player to Watch: Of course, Hartline went after wide receivers in the portal, and his top-ranked addition was at the position. The Purdue transfer was one of the first players to commit to USF when the transfer portal opened. In his second season at Purdue, Branch hauled in 14 receptions for 212 yards and two touchdowns.
With Hartline’s track record with pass catchers, it’s safe to say Branch will be in good hands. If he emerges as USF’s top target, he could be in for a big year with the Bulls. The Outlook: The longtime FCS powerhouse, North Dakota State, has been dominant long enough to debut at No.
26 in RJ Young's Ultimate 138 rankings. Now, it's time to play with the big boys in the FBS as the Bison join the Mountain West. Boise State dominated the conference for so long, but now the Broncos have moved on to the Pac-12, opening the door for this powerhouse program to take over.
The Bison return eight starters from last season's 12-1 team. They will be ready for the Mountain West. Will the Mountain West be ready for them?
Biggest Games: Week 1 vs. Jacksonville State, Week 6 @ UNLV, Week 11 @ Hawai’i Player to Watch: Woolen started every game for the Bison during his sophomore season, leading the team with 86 tackles. The first-year starter also recorded five tackles for loss, three interceptions and nine pass breakups.
His performance earned him second-team All-Missouri Valley Football Conference honors. He earned Defensive Player of the Week honors after totaling 18 tackles against North Dakota. The Bison will need another big year from Woolen in their first season in the FBS.
The Outlook: After a 9-4 season last year in the Mountain West, the Pac-12 came calling. In the revamped conference, the Fresno State Bulldogs can rise to the top and win the Pac-12 in their first year. The Bulldogs return 13 starters from last year’s team, the third-most in college football.
Second-year coach Matt Entz isn’t new to winning. He was part of six FCS national championship teams at North Dakota State, four as a defensive coordinator and two as a head coach in 2019 and 2021. Entz’s defensive prowess helped the Bulldogs become the No.
1 defense in the Mountain West last season. Fresno State ranked first in the conference and seventh nationally in total yards allowed, while only one Mountain West team allowed fewer points. That defense also forced the seventh-most turnovers (26) in the country.
Biggest Games: Week 6 vs. Boise State, Week 7 @ San Diego State Player to Watch: A major contributor to those 26 turnovers was this junior cornerback, who had a knack for getting the ball back for the offense. Harris grabbed five interceptions, tied for the third most in college football last season, and added a forced fumble.
But Harris did more than create turnovers, as he also ranked second on the team with 54 tackles and recorded six tackles for loss. Under a defensive-minded coach like Entz, expect Harris to have another big year as the Bulldogs enter the Pac-12. The Outlook: After being hired following the 2024 season, Matt Drinkall led Central Michigan to its most wins since 2021 with a 7-6 record.
Two of those losses came by one possession. With an offense and defense that ranked in the top 20 in multiple categories, those one-possession losses could very well turn into wins this season. The Chippewas’ defense forced a turnover in every game, including matchups against Michigan and Pitt.
Returning the third-most starters in the MAC should help second-year coach Drinkall propel Central Michigan to the top of the conference. Biggest Games: Week 6 @ Ohio, Week 7 vs. Western Michigan, Week 8 vs.
Miami (OH) Player to Watch: The senior quarterback is set for a big year after battling injuries and primarily serving as the backup last season. Flores played in nine games in 2025 and still led the Chippewas in rushing touchdowns (8) while ranking second on the team in rushing yards (527). Flores added 195 yards through the air, completing 19 of his 28 passes for two touchdowns.
Now that Flores is set to take over as QB1, expect the dual-threat quarterback to remain dangerous with his legs and take a big leap in the passing game. The Outlook: Last season’s champions are being doubted. In his first year as Kennesaw State’s head coach, Jerry Mack led the Owls to 10 wins and a conference championship.
Entering this season, the Owls have three first-team all-conference players: offensive lineman Nikola Milovac, linebacker Baron Hopson and defensive back Tyler Hallum. The last team to repeat as C-USA champions was UTSA in 2021 and 2022. Will the Owls be next?
Biggest Games: Week 3 @ Tennessee, Week 6 vs. Jacksonville State, Week 8 vs. Liberty, Week 13 @ Western Kentucky Player to Watch: Jones transferred from Michigan before the 2025 season and made an immediate impact for the Owls’ defense.
The former four-star recruit recorded 29 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss and two sacks. Jones also added an interception and three pass breakups in his first season with the Owls. Now, he returns to the KSU defense ready to make another big impact.
The Outlook: Four of Appalachian State’s losses last season came by one possession, leaving the Mountaineers with a 5-8 record. With a new offensive coordinator, the No. 1 incoming transfer class in the Sun Belt and their second-leading rusher returning, the Mountaineers are set up for success.
Head coach Dowell Loggains helped lead LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina to the program’s best season since 2013. As the offensive coordinator, Loggains lifted the Gamecocks to a top-10 offense, while Sellers had his best year with 30 total touchdowns and more than 3,400 total yards. Now, Loggains will work with former four-star dual-threat quarterback Malachi Singleton, hoping to unlock a dangerous ground game featuring Singleton and Jaquari Lewis.
Biggest Games: Week 2 @ East Carolina, Week 6 vs. Old Dominion, Week 8 vs. James Madison Player to Watch: While splitting carries last year, Lewis was still the Mountaineers’ second-leading rusher with 618 yards and led the team in rushing touchdowns during his freshman season.
Lewis ran for a career-high 175 yards and found the end zone twice in a win against Marshall. Loggains will give his running backs a heavy workload, and the sophomore proved he’s up for it after a strong freshman season. Lewis will be the Mountaineers’ top back this season, so watch for him to be a dynamic piece of the ground game.
