A week ago, to the surprise of many, No. 21 Florida was a home favorite against No. 4 Ole Miss.
"Everybody was asking: How could Florida be favored? Well, now we see how," Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. Indeed, Florida blasted Ole Miss 52-28.
Subsequently, one week after the public betting masses wanted nothing to do with the Gators, they’re all over Florida in college football Week 5 odds, vs. Missouri. Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that matchup and more in college football Week 5 betting.
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Last year, Florida went 4-8 straight up (SU) and 5-7 against the spread (ATS). Gators coach Billy Napier was fired halfway through the season, and John Sumrall was hired on Nov. 30.
Oddsmakers expected somewhat of a turnaround, putting Florida’s season win total at 7.5. But it’s doubtful that anyone thought the Gators would be unbeaten heading into Week 5. Florida is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS and coming off that hugely impressive blowout of Ole Miss, as a 4-point home favorite.
The Gators then jumped from No. 21 to No. 8 in the AP poll.
And Caesars Sports opened Florida as a 4.5-point road favorite vs. Missouri (3-1 SU/1-3 ATS) in college football Week 5 odds. As of Wednesday night, Florida was up to -6.
Feazel said the big win rightly swung the public’s opinion. "You’ve got to see it to believe it," Feazel said. "They weren’t on Florida last week vs.
Ole Miss. Now, we’re seeing a lot of Florida money." So undoubtedly, Caesars will need Missouri — and preferably in an outright upset — for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Even with a Week 2 loss at Texas, Ohio State (3-1 SU and ATS) is the favorite in Caesars’ College Football Playoff championship odds. That’s also despite being ranked fifth in the AP poll. The Buckeyes are hefty road favorites vs.
No. 17 Iowa (4-0 SU/3-1 ATS) in a 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday start.
Ohio State opened -14 and initially backed up to -13.5, but on Wednesday morning climbed to -14.5, where the number stood Wednesday night. "To no one’s surprise, we’re taking more Ohio State money," Feazel said. "The need is gonna be Iowa hanging within the number." The FOX Big Noon Kickoff heads to Minneapolis this week, where Minnesota (3-1 SU and ATS) hosts Michigan (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS).
The Wolverines are coming off their first loss — many might argue it’s their second — in a 20-19 home setback to Iowa as 4.5-point home favorites. Michigan gave up a touchdown on the game’s final play. On the flip side, the Golden Gophers are coming off a big road upset, going to Washington as 12.5-point underdogs and leaving with a 27-24 victory.
Caesars opened Michigan -6.5, and the first move was toward Minnesota for this noon ET Saturday kickoff. The line dipped to Wolverines -5.5 on Sunday night and was still there as of Wednesday night. "Michigan finally got the loss they were due," Feazel said.
"There’s not a lot of action at the moment on the side. This will get some action on Saturday, but I think it’ll be mostly two-way. "But there is action on the Under." The total opened at 44.5, then got as low as 43 multiple times before nudging to 43.5 on Wednesday night.
FOX also has an interesting Friday night matchup between Penn State (3-1 SU/2-2 ATS) and Northwestern (2-1 SU/3-0 ATS), at 8 p.m. ET. Last week, Northwestern put the fear of God into Indiana before losing 29-23 as a 20.5-point road underdog.
And Penn State, ranked 13th at the time, shockingly blew a 17-0 lead and lost to Wisconsin 24-20 as a 9.5-point home favorite. DraftKings Sports has the Nittany Lions as 2.5-point road favorites vs. the Wildcats, and opinions are split midweek, with 54% of spread bets on Northwestern/61% of spread money on Penn State. College football betting expert Paul Stone recognizes that USC (4-1 SU/1-4 ATS) can ill afford another loss in the hugely competitive Big Ten.
Last week, the Trojans were tied with Oregon at 27 early in the fourth quarter. But Southern Cal didn’t score again in a 41-27 setback as a 3.5-point home underdog. This week, USC hosts Washington (3-1 SU/0-4 ATS) in a 7:30 p.m.
ET Saturday kick. The Trojans are 9.5-point favorites, and Stone believes a double-digit win is in store. Explaining his optimism, Stone noted that USC is averaging 39.8 points and 489.4 yards a game, among the top 10 nationally in both categories.
"USC hasn't necessarily cured its defensive shortcomings. But the Trojans' offense remains among the nation's best," Stone said. "On the other hand, Washington has been punchless on offense this season.
Quarterback Demond Williams has no real weapons to complement his skills. "I look for USC to roll to an easier-than-expected victory and cover the point spread." Florida-Missouri isn’t the only big SEC showdown this week. No.
8 Alabama (4-0 SU/3-1 ATS) visits surprisingly unbeaten and 16th-ranked Mississippi State (4-0 SU and ATS), in a noon ET Saturday start. The Bulldogs are coming off a riveting 31-24 win as 3.5-point favorites vs. Missouri.
QB Kamario Taylor has also put himself into the Heisman Trophy odds conversation, now the +600 third choice, trailing only Ohio State wideout and favorite Jeremiah Smith (+260) and Miami QB Darian Mensah (+375). Still, Caesars opened the Crimson Tide as 6-point road favorites, with the line toggling to -5.5 a couple of times early in the week before resettling at -6. "So far, people are betting on Alabama and betting on the Over," Feazel said.
"But we’re also starting to see some Mississippi State moneyline trickle in. "So we’re probably going to need Alabama to win and Mississippi State to cover. Although Mississippi State outright probably wouldn’t be bad, because there’ll be a lot of Alabama moneyline parlays."
