Here’s how you know that the NFL drives the American sports betting bus: Steelers vs. Browns, which is not exactly a marquee matchup, will still draw plenty of eyeballs and action from the public betting masses. "The NFL is still king," Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
"Even as much as we complain about some of these Thursday night games, it’s still the NFL. We’re still all watching, and it’ll still be bet on. "Being in a prime-time spot, Steelers-Browns should be in our top-three handle games of the weekend." Thankfully, there are a few more attractive matchups in NFL Week 4 odds, including Rams vs.
Eagles on FOX and a Chiefs vs. Raiders battle of unbeatens. Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their midweek insights on those matchups and more, as we dive into NFL Week 4 betting nuggets.
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In Week 4, FOX gets a matchup perhaps worthy of the playoffs: Rams vs. Eagles, at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
Los Angeles opened the season as the Super Bowl favorite but is 1-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) through three games. Philadelphia is 2-1 SU, but 0-3 ATS, among six teams that haven’t covered the spread this season. And while both are coming off losses, Philly’s was far more alarming — a 27-7 blowout as a 3.5-point Monday night favorite at Chicago.
L.A. lost to Denver 30-26 in the Sunday night game, with a questionable pass-interference call going against the Rams late. Caesars Sports opened Rams-Eagles at L.A. -2.5, and on Tuesday, the Rams climbed to -3, where the line remained Wednesday afternoon. "These two teams are coming off two different types of losses.
The public perceived that the Rams were robbed," Feazel said. "We’ve taken a lot of Rams money, and we’re gonna see more Rams money. "And I anticipate Over money, too, especially with this Rams team being able to move the ball up and down the field." That said, after the total opened at 45.5, it’s down to 43, largely as a reaction to the Eagles’ lackluster effort vs. the Bears.
NFL Week 4 odds kick off with an 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday meeting between the Steelers and Browns, both 2-1 SU and ATS. Caesars opened Pittsburgh a 2.5-point road favorite and on Wednesday morning moved to -3, where the line sat Wednesday afternoon.
"There’s nothing too crazy yet, but we are seeing more Steelers action. No surprise there, and I anticipate that continuing," Feazel said. "People are gonna say Steelers -3 is easy money.
"I anticipate needing the Browns at home, and probably Browns outright. There’ll be a good amount of moneyline parlays associated with the Steelers." Professional bettor Randy McKay is among those involved with Steelers-Browns. He’s not shying away from the home underdog, taking Cleveland +3.
"On a short week, I’m taking the home team. I like what the Browns have done the last two weeks, winning close games," McKay said. In Week 2, the Browns were 8.5-point road underdogs and upset the Buccaneers 23-19.
In Week 3, the Browns were 2.5-point home ‘dogs vs. the Panthers and won 21-18. McKay also likes Cleveland due to the recent history in this AFC North rivalry. "Cleveland won two of the last four vs.
Pittsburgh, both in Cleveland. So it’s been a home-and-home series," McKay said. Last season, in Week 17, the host Browns beat the Steelers 13-6.
And in the 2024 season at home, the Browns won 24-19. The Texans made the playoffs last year, going 12-5 after opening the season with three straight losses. This year, the Texans are again out to an 0-3 SU and ATS start.
Still, Caesars opened the Texans as 2.5-point home favorites vs. the Cowboys (1-2 SU/2-1 ATS), and the spread is up to Houston -3 for another 1 p.m. ET kick on FOX. So the risk room seems to have some faith in Houston.
But the masses, not so much. "The market doesn’t seem to be selling yet on the Texans. But the public is not believing in the Texans," Feazel said.
"Action-wise so far, it’s more on the Cowboys. But I anticipate this being closer to two-way action by Sunday, on the spread and the total. "There’s not much sharp action and not much movement.
It seems like a must-win for the Texans." With Patrick Mahomes healthy and Kenneth Walker III running wild, the Chiefs are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS. That’s not a huge surprise. But the Raiders being 3-0 SU and ATS is certainly surprising.
Something’s got to give on Sunday in Sin City, for a 4:25 p.m. ET AFC West clash. Caesars opened the Chiefs -4.5 and briefly advanced to -5.5 on Sunday night, then returned to -4.5.
As of Wednesday afternoon, it was still Kansas City -4.5. But the ‘dog is getting early attention, in no small part due to regional betting bias, with Caesars Sports’ big presence in Las Vegas. "We’re already building up pretty decent liability on the Raiders.
Everybody is kind of buying in," Feazel said. "There’s heavy action on Raiders moneyline, too. So we’re probably gonna need the Chiefs to win and cover." Interestingly, Feazel said the Raiders are currently Caesars’ largest liability in Super Bowl futures odds, as well.
As noted above, the Broncos (2-1 SU and ATS) were the beneficiaries of a key pass-interference call late in the Week 3 Sunday night game vs. the Rams. Denver went on to a 30-26 victory as a 1-point home underdog. The 49ers are out to a 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS start, including an impressive 27-7 Week 1 blowout of the Rams.
In Week 3, San Francisco held off the Cardinals 36-30 but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. In Week 4 NFL odds, Caesars opened the Niners -3, and as of Wednesday afternoon, it was Niners -2.5 (-120) for an 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday kick.
"These are two teams getting action every week," Feazel said. "This week, action is pretty much balanced so far, and I think it’ll stay the same. The only liability we’re seeing on this right now is on the Over." And movement reflects that liability, with the total climbing from 45.5 to 48.5.
Even with two-way play on the spread, Feazel anticipates the book will have a preference by Sunday night. "We’ll probably need the Broncos come game time. But we’re definitely gonna need the Under.
We’re gonna need this to be a low-scoring affair," Feazel said.
