A month ago, before the first ball was kicked, France was the favorite in World Cup futures odds. Now, with a 5-0 record and a 14-2 goal differential, the French are even stronger favorites to lift the trophy. And the public betting masses overwhelmingly believe in Kylian Mbappé & Co.
"Les Bleus have been popular since Day 1, given the quality of their team along with their star power," Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said Wednesday night. "In the futures, they are head and shoulders the most popular team remaining." Read on for more, as Mucklow assesses 2026 World Cup odds and action ahead of the quarterfinals. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners.
If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Singing Les Bleus Keep in mind that France is more than familiar with this territory.
The French reached the past two championship matches, beating Croatia in 2018, then rallying to force overtime vs. Argentina in 2022, before losing in a penalty-kick shootout. France enters the quarterfinals coming off two straight knockout stage shutouts — 3-0 vs.
Sweden in the Round of 32 and 1-0 vs. Paraguay in the Round of 16. Bettors have been on France since the group stage and kept on riding Les Bleus in the knockout matches.
"One of the best results of the tournament for bettors came with France’s victory over Iraq," Mucklow said of a 3-0 shutout, while noting that Mbappé netting two goals in that match contributed to a big win for Caesars customers. The knockout stage raised the wagering interest in France. Of the 96 matches so far, both of France’s knockout games were among those drawing the most money.
"France holds the fifth- and eighth-best-handled games of the tournament to date, vs. Paraguay and vs. Sweden," Mucklow said.
Keep in mind, too, that of the four matches drawing more money at Caesars, two involved the USA. So among non-USA matches, France was involved in two of the top six, in terms of money wagered. And as Mucklow pointed out above, France is the most popular team in World Cup championship futures, taking more dollars than any of the other seven quarter-finalists.
"Of the remaining teams, they are the best result for bettors. Argentina follows as second-best, then Norway and Spain," Mucklow said. France opens the quarterfinal round with a 4 p.m.
ET Thursday match. Spain vs. Belgium follows at 3 p.m.
ET on Friday, and the quarters wrap up Saturday with Norway vs. England at 5 p.m. ET and Argentina vs.
Switzerland at 9 p.m. ET. All matches are on FOX.
Riding the Lionel Train Defending World Cup champion Argentina has gotten all it could handle in its last two matches. The Argentines were nearly dealt the upset of the tournament in the Round of 32, edging huge, plucky underdog Cape Verde 3-2 in overtime. Then in the Round of 16, Argentina trailed Egypt 2-0 late in the second half, seemingly destined for an early flight home.
But Lionel Messi & Co. weren’t to be denied. Cristian Romero broke through in the 79th minute, and Messi followed four minutes later to tie the match. Then Enzo Fernández scored two minutes into injury time, as the Argentines advanced with a shocking 3-2 comeback victory.
You might think that would give bettors pause, but Mucklow said it’s quite the opposite. In fact, during both those riveting matches, in-play betting on Argentina was massive. "If anything, it has turned on bettors," Mucklow said of Argentina’s heroics.
"Rarely do you see world champions struggle with, in theory, lesser opponents. The Cape Verde classic was third in money and third in ticket count. "Then, when you get the champs down 2-0 [vs.
Egypt], the in-play odds for the match and To Qualify are both pretty inviting. That proved to be the case, as many customers took the 25/1 Argentina comeback in 90 minutes. Quite possibly, this was the greatest comeback in World Cup history." And the public betting masses tend to remember most the thing they saw last.
In Argentina’s case, that’s two of the most thrilling victories of the 2026 World Cup, with Messi right in the middle of it. So, no doubt, bettors will be back for more in Argentina’s quarterfinal vs. Switzerland, and in the futures odds.
"The Argentinians and the bettors are never out of it when one of the greatest of all time, in most likely his last World Cup, is still on the pitch," Mucklow said. Argentina is the second-largest championship liability at Caesars, behind only France. Messi vs.
Mbappé and More The race for the Golden Boot is on, too, and no surprise, Messi and Mbappé are at the top. Messi leads a tight chase with eight goals, while Mbappé has seven, as does hugely popular Norway star Erling Haaland. And England’s Harry Kane is in the mix, as well, with six goals.
At this moment, ahead of the quarterfinals, Caesars would prefer the Argentinian superstar win the award. "The customers win big to Mbappé, but Messi is a [good] result for the book," Mucklow said. "But don’t rule out Haaland and Kane, as one of them is guaranteed to progress to the semifinals, while Messi and Mbappé are not." Indeed, since Norway faces England, Haaland or Kane have an edge on Mbappé and Messi.
Caesars has Messi as the +110 favorite in Golden Boot odds, with Mbappé close behind at +125. Then there’s some drop-off to Haaland at +550 and Kane at +700. There’s probably some value in taking Haaland or Kane, and certainly a better payout — if you can correctly pick which one stays alive this weekend.
Betting momentum on Haaland has picked up significant steam over the course of the tournament. Pre-tourney, Haaland was +1500, and apparently, quite a few bettors jumped on at better odds than exist now. "Haaland is a big winner for the bettors, and rightly so," Mucklow said.
"He and Mbappé are probably the hottest and most dangerous strikers in the world. Norway has become the new tournament darling, after Cape Verde’s elimination, and the same could be said about the Great Norwegian and his Golden Boot popularity." Pre-tourney, Messi was almost as long as Haaland, at +1400, while Mbappé and Kane were +600 and +700, respectively. Match Play With France vs.
Morocco kicking off first and having been on the World Cup oddsboard the longest, Mucklow said that matchup is the most popular quarterfinal. But when all four matches are done, he projects that the Kane-Haaland showdown will outdraw the other three matches. "We anticipate Norway vs.
England will have the most handle of the quarterfinals, given the friendly kickoff time and the familiarity of the players," Mucklow said.
