UFC Paris predictions

Salahdine Parnasse’s long-overdue UFC debut is here.

The higher ranked Dan Hooker might technically be the A-side of his UFC Paris matchup with Parnasse, but when the lights go down at Accor Arena for Saturday’s main event, all eyes will be on Parnasse as he looks to make an immediate impact in the lightweight division. Parnasse is no stranger to championships, having reigned at 155 pounds and 145 pounds in his time with KSW. Can he get on the fast track to gold with a highlight-reel win over Hooker?

Meanwhile, Hooker looks to avoid the first three-fight losing streak of his career. “The Hangman” has been on the ropes before, but always seemed to battle through adversity to score wins over ranked opponents and stay relevant. A loss to Parnasse could truly signal the beginning of the end for him as he approaches 40 pro bouts.

In other main card action, Fares Ziam and Axel Sola fight in a high stakes battle of French lightweights, Michael Page continues—and possibly concludes—his bizarre UFC journey as he takes on Nursulton Ruziboev, The Ultimate Fighter 33 winner Daniil Donchenko fights the streaking Punahele Soriano, and Kurtis Campbell and Losene Keita both look to rebound from disappointing UFC debuts as they face Trevor Peek and Muhammad Naimov, respectively.

What: UFC Paris

Where: Accor Arena in Paris

When: Saturday, Sept. 4. The eight-fight preliminary card begins at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 3 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Dan Hooker (8) vs. Salahdine Parnasse

Dan Hooker has thrived as an underdog before, but there are just too many ways for Salahdine Parnasse to find success here.

Even if you concede that Hooker has generally faced stronger competition (though Parnasse’s KSW opposition is nothing to sneeze at), his only recent win over a top opponent is Mateusz Gamrot and that was two years ago. He might truly be nearing the end of his decorated career.

Hooker’s gift for drawing opponents into dogfights has taken him a long way, and he can certainly win one against Parnasse if that’s how the UFC debutant chooses to engage. Parnasse packs serious punch, and he will be happy to let Hooker close the distance for him if it means he can unleash a blistering counter. But he can also take a more strategic route.

Parnasse has the kind of quick-strike power that has troubled Hooker in the past. He can also take the fight to ground if he needs to, because he’s relentless when he has an opponent hurt on their back. And then you factor in Parnasse’s elite athleticism, and the chance of an upset narrows considerably.

You have to respect Hooker for signing on for this one, but Parnasse won’t be denied his home-country moment.

Pick: Parnasse

Fares Ziam vs. Axel Sola

Speaking of giving credit where it’s due, a tip of the cap to the matchmakers for not shying away from booking two standout French fighters against one another.

Fares Ziam was on a hot streak before running into hot prospect Tom Nolan, who snapped Ziam’s six-fight win streak. An unfortunate result for Ziam, but also one he could learn from as Nolan is one of the few lightweights that can match his dimensions and Alex Sola is of a similar ilk.

Making this matchup even more difficult to figure out is that Ziam and Sola are both well-rounded, typically of the mind to stand and strike, but neither will sweat it if the fight goes to the ground. Sola in particular looked awesome rolling with Ismael Bonfim in his most recent outing before forcing Bonfim to tap to a D’Arce choke.

I’m essentially flipping a coin and going with Ziam, just based on how he’s fared against UFC-quality competition. For all I know, this could be Sola’s breakout moment.

Pick: Ziam

Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Why is this fight happening? Other than to fulfill the last appearance of Michael Page’s contract?

“MVP” is inexplicably back at middleweight after a dreary 170-pound outing against friend Sam Patterson at UFC London. I say inexplicably, but Page has actually done well at 185 pounds, earning a win over one-time title challenger Jared Cannonier and handing Shara Bullet his lone loss. And yet, it doesn’t sound like he ever wanted to be in this division much less stick around for the final fight of his current contract.

If you gave me a list of 100 names I would have expected Page to fight in the UFC when he first signed, Nursulton Ruziboev wouldn’t have been on it. Yet here we are. On the plus side, he’s an opponent that will stand and strike with Page; on the other, it’s unclear if he has the skill set to actually make the fight interesting, win or lose.

As Jed Meshew and I so elegantly explained on the preview show, Page is at his dynamic best when he’s matched up with bozos that he can style on. Ruziboev doesn’t really fit that bill, so again, I ask what is the thinking behind this matchmaking? Has the UFC really reached the point where they just want the MVP experience to be over with (and for Page to move on to the greener pastures of—duh—MVP MMA)?

Ruziboev wins, I guess.

Pick:

Daniil Donchenko vs. Punahele Soriano

Throw ‘em in and let ‘em start chucking.

If Page vs. Ruziboev has me scratching my head, Daniil Donchenko vs. Punahele Soriano already has me chomping at the bit. Donchenko was a front-runner on TUF 33, and the 25-year-old Ukrainian has shown plenty of promise in his two UFC fights proper, defeating the more experienced Alex Morono and finishing Theodor Berggren. He’s nowhere near a finished prospect, so now is the right time to see how he fares against a talent like Soriano.

At 170 pounds, Soriano has thrived, going 4-0, including a 31-second knockout over Uros Medic in January 2025. His recent decision nod over Ramiz Brahimaj was less than thrilling, but it also showed that Soriano could win ugly, a valuable trait at the UFC level. Can Donchenko find success if Soriano decides he’s not in bonus-hunting mode?

I’m staying optimistic and saying Donchenko hurts Soriano early, unleashing the beast. The action will get fast and furious in a hurry, and I like Soriano’s chances of landing during a flurry and sending Donchenko to his first knockout loss.

Pick: Soriano

Kurtis Campbell vs. Trevor Peek

Alright Kurtis Campbell, time for Take 2.

The funky Scouser ran into the hard hands of Danny Silva in his freshman outing and tasted defeat for the first time as he was finished with strikes in the second round. Prior to the finish, Campbell showed flashes of the talent that made him a reigning and defending champion in England. Having recently turned 24, Campbell has plenty of time to live up to his potential.

To this purpose, Trevor Peek has been flown in all the way from the mean streets of Alabama. For those wondering, yes, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Peek in the octagon, nearly two years to the day of his most recent fight, a unanimous decision loss to Yanal Ashmouz. Peek is tough as nails and absolutely has a chance to upset Campbell by just coming forward, swinging, and hoping for the best.

I hate Campbell being such a huge favorite here (-405 on FanDuel), but I still expect him to pick up the victory. If he can take the fight to the ground, he might even become the first fighter to submit Peek.

Pick: Campbell

Losene Keita vs. Muhammad Naimov

Losene Keita had a difficult draw for his first UFC fight, the perpetually overlooked Nathaniel Wood, and in my opinion his sophomore foe, Muhammad Naimov isn’t that much of a step down.

Even though Naimov has seen mixed results in the octagon, you have to be on your toes against him as he’s just as likely to throw out a spin kick to the face as he is shoot for a double leg. I get the logic here, with Keita preferring a standup battle and Naimov likely to give it to him, but don’t be surprised if the underdog throws Keita off by mixing the martial arts early and often.

Just going by the always trustworthy MMA Math, Naimov should have the edge given that he won a comfortable decision over Wood, who earned a narrow split nod over Keita. But things are never that simple.

Keita just needs to do more in this fight to avoid going 0-2. More strikes. More accuracy. And way, way more aggression. Otherwise, waiting for the perfect opportunity to strike could lead to another disappointing night.

Pick: Keita

Preliminaries

Felipe Lima def. Morgan Charriere

Mario Pinto def. Ryan Spann

Oumar Sy def. Modestas Bukauskas

Nathaniel Wood def. Pavel Andrusca

Fabia Sintes def. Michael Aljarouj

Nora Cornolle (14) def. Klaudia Sygula

Matthieu Duclos def. Luis Felipe Dias

Delphine Benouaich def. Sofia Montenegro