UFC Shanghai predictions

Umar Nurmagomedov has a dangerous test ahead of him as he faces an opponent playing with house money.

For a second fight in a row, Song Yadong fights in his native China, headlining UFC Shanghai opposite Nurmagomedov in a pivotal bantamweight contenders’ bout. Nurmagomedov has long been touted as a future champion and he’s back to his winning ways following a disappointing title fight loss to Merab Dvalishvili, but has he done enough to whet the appetite of the fans and matchmakers?

Nurmagomedov has to not only win Saturday, he has to deliver a highlight or two to snatch back that No. 1 contender spot. On the other side, Song gets another chance to shatter the notion that he can’t defeat an elite bantamweight in their prime.

Also on the main card, Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes meet in a strawweight co-main event with legitimate contender stakes, Aoriqileng faces knockout artist Kai Asakura, Alex Perez and Sumudaerji run it back, K-1 kickboxing champion Liu Ce makes his UFC debut, and red hot Contender Series prospect Bilal Hassan fights for the second time in less than three weeks.

What: UFC Shanghai

Where: Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China

When: Saturday, Aug. 29. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 3 a.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 6 a.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Umar Nurmagomedov (3) vs. Song Yadong (7)

On paper, Umar Nurmagomedov has Song Yadong beat in a number of categories. Stronger wrestler, stronger ground game, and I actually think he’s better on the feet even though Song is better known for getting into exciting striking battles. Nurmagomedov is a complete fighter, but can’t afford a slip-up against Song.

Song has beaten some big names in his day, like Henry Cejudo, Marlon Moraes, and Marlon Vera, and it feels like he’s been on the cusp of greatness for several years. When he gets cooking with the standup, few bantamweights would dare to stand and trade with him. However, against the best of the best, Song has often looked a step behind, and that’s the version of Song I expect to see against Nurmagomedov on Saturday.

Nurmagomedov is simply too good at imposing his will with his wrestling or switching to secondary disciplines when the situation calls for it. It’s true, Nurmagomedov needs to make a statement to give his contender case some juice, and I expect him to deliver exactly what people are looking for. He wears Song down, takes him down the third, and pounds him out for the KO.

Pick: Nurmagomedov

Yan Xiaonan (4, P4P-18) vs. Denise Gomes (13)

Would it surprise you to know that Denise Gomes is tied for the longest win streak (4) in the UFC’s strawweight division with champion Mackenzie Dern and blue-chipper Fatima Kline? Yes? No? Well, I thought it was interesting.

Gomes is potentially one impressive performance away from a title shot and the matchmakers are giving her the opportunity by pairing her up with one-time championship challenger Yan Xiaonan. This should primarily be a striking affair, with Gomes looking to lumber forward and imposer her power game on Yan, while Yan will rely more on her high-level technique to stifle Gomes.

I tend to harp on age a lot when making picks and I’m doing so again here. Gomes is a decade younger than Yan, so the strength and athleticism gap should be even more pronounced. On the other hand, Yan has a significant experience advantage and has exclusively tested herself against ranked competition for years. It’s a close call.

Yan could have one last title run in her, but I’m expecting a passing of the torch here with Gomes out-slugging Yan to shock the Shanghai crowd.

Pick: Gomes

Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura

I am loving me some bantamweight Kai Asakura!

The former RIZIN star had a spectacular return to 135 pounds against Cameron Smotherman and I’m expecting more of the same against Aoriqileng. “The Mongolian Murderer” is no walk-over, but he’s not the most defensively sound fighter either, and I expect Asakura to score in this matchup early and often. Of course, if he wades in carelessly, Aoriqileng will make him pay.

For the most part, though, Asakura will beat Aoriqileng to the punch again and again, until he lands a shot that Aoriqileng can’t recover from.

Pick: Asakura

Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji 2

Here’s a portion of what I wrote about this matchup when Alex Perez and Sumudaerji first squared off three months ago:

Sumudaerji has tantalizing physical gifts, almost Stefan Struve-esque in his potential to mix size and skill. He has a reach advantage over almost everyone in the division and when he can utilize it properly, he looks like a world beater. And yet he hasn’t actually beaten anyone close to being considered a top-tier flyweight. It’s frustrating.

Alex Perez, on the other hand, has maximized his abilities to the fullest. Perhaps pushing himself to the highest level is why his career has been so riddled with injury, but when he hangs up the gloves someday, I think most will agree he did everything he could short of winning a UFC title. He’s defeated some solid names with his classic mixture of wrestling and fast hands.

My read was that Perez’s experience and wrestling gave him the edge and I still feel that way, though Sumudaerji proved he knows his way around a sprawl while also mixing in some offensive grappling of his own. He also showed he could hurt Perez, scoring the lone knockout of the fight before it ended in unceremonious fashion when Sumudaerji clipped Perez with a kick below the belt. Perez puked into a bucket, the fight was ruled a no-contest, and now here we are again.

Perez landed his fair share of punches against the taller Sumudaerji before things went haywire, and his ability to mix things up is the difference in this matchup. He also knows he has to show Sumudaerji plenty of respect and as long as he avoids getting caught again, he wins a decision.

Pick: Perez

Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Liu Ce is a K-1 kickboxing champion who presumably wants nothing to do with the ground game in his UFC debut. Levi Rodrigues Jr., come on down!

This isn’t necessarily a layup for Liu, with Rodrigues showing flashes of the crisp striking that have made him an intriguing addition to the light heavyweight roster. Rodrigues does a good job of putting pressure on his opponents, something that has given Liu trouble in the past. On the flip-side, Liu hits hard and loves leg kicks, so Rodrigues is in danger of getting chopped down before he even has the chance to get in range to put hands on Liu.

I can see this going either way, with the only thing for sure being that this one won’t go to the scorecards. Liu’s length and overall combat sports experience advantage should get him the knockout.

Pick: Liu

Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas

If Bilal Hasan comes out fighting like this guy, people are going to lose it:

If you saw Hasan’s contract-winning performance on Dana White’s Contender Series, you know the self-professed Michael Jackson enthusiast is a smooth criminal inside the cage, and he has a ton of hype heading into his UFC debut proper. Hasan and Nilson Rojas both sport 9-0 records and are far from finished products, but at the moment, Hasan’s tape is a bit more flattering.

Light as a feather on his feet, Hasan already has a distinct style, which is comprised of him setting up traps, countering, and driving kicks into his opponents’ midsections. Rojas is more measured in his approach, but also does a fantastic job of mixing up his punches with high-low combinations. He wants to get in and make it dirty, Hasan wants to keep the fight at range until it’s time to close in.

A true clash of styles and compelling work from the matchmakers here, throwing a pair of promising prospects into the fire. Hasan gets the win on this day, but I expect him and Rojas to have plenty of UFC highlights ahead of them.

Pick: Hasan

Preliminaries

Andre Lima def. Namsrai Batbayar

Rei Tsuruya def. Kevin Borjas

Sean Woodson def. Jack Jenkins

Xiao Long def. Francesco Nuzzi

Lawrence Lui def. Hector Santiago

Xiong Jingnan def. Julia Polastri

Ding Meng def. Cam Nelson