UFC Sacramento predictions

For Anthony Hernandez, a little home cooking at UFC Sacramento might be exactly what he needs to get himself back on track for a title shot.

Raised in Dunnigan, just a quick trip up the highway from the California capital, Hernandez competes for the first time since a disappointing loss to Sean Strickland this past February. Hernandez saw an eight-fight win streak end and a title shot fall out of reach, but rather than mope about it, “Fluffy” decided to team up with Strickland—who regained the middleweight championship in his next fight—and focus on shoring up the weaknesses that led to his first defeat since 2021.

Gregory Rodrigues stands across from Hernandez in Saturday’s headliner, and despite a few uneven results, “Robocop” is also in position to announce himself as a contender having won three straight fights and six of his past seven. If Rodrigues plays the spoiler, he can make a major dent in the middleweight rankings and prove more than a few naysayers wrong about his chances of ever fighting for a UFC belt.

In other notable main card action, Serghei Spivac looks to stop Vitor Petrino from breaking into the heavyweight top 10 and Reinier de Ridder returns to the light heavyweight division when he takes on Roman Dolidze.

What: UFC Sacramento

Where: Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif.

When: Saturday, Aug. 22. The seven-fight early preliminary card begins at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 8 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Anthony Hernandez (T5) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (15)

Did Sean Strickland teach Anthony Hernandez to watch for the body shots?

During Hernandez’s buzzsaw run through the middleweight division, he didn’t seem too worried about protecting his vulnerable midsection, as his opponents were usually far too busy dealing with his non-stop pressure to find an angle for a good head-body-head combination. Strickland had Hernandez scouted, though, and an inability to take the fight to the mat and consistently defend himself proved to be Hernandez’s outdoing.

Gregory Rodrigues is well-equipped to take similar advantage of Hernandez. He loves to throw heavy hands, but his high-level grappling background should help him foil Hernandez’s takedown attempts. The question is for how long?

Hernandez’s fast-paced style will be a headache for Rodrigues, who is at his best in more plodding middleweighty duels. I have no doubt Rodrigues will do some damage to Hernandez early, but Hernandez should be the stronger fighter in the championship rounds if the fight gets there.

I’ve seen Hernandez wear down too many fighters to count him out just because he lost to a two-time UFC champion, even though Rodrigues could absolutely find a finish in the first three rounds. Let’s see if Hernandez shows his own championship mettle this time.

Pick: Hernandez

Serghei Spivac (13) vs. Victor Petrino

I cannot get a read on Vitor Petrino at all. Moving up from light heavyweight was obviously the right move for the hard-hitting Brazilian, who is 3-0 in the big boy division, but how much weight do we lend to wins over Steven Asplund (respect), Thomas Petersen (meh), and Austen Lane (meeeeeeh)? Serghei Spivac is the perfect test for him right now.

Spivac is essentially the new Marcin Tybura. He’s clearly a notch above the mid-tier of the heavyweight division and capable of producing some impressive finishes, but it feels like we have a firm grasp of his ceiling, which is to be a mainstay in the top 10 without ever receiving serious title consideration. And there’s nothing wrong with that!

As far as how he handles Petrino, it’s no secret he’ll go for takedowns early and often and look to punish Petrino on the ground. I’m curious to see if Petrino initiates the grappling first to slow Spivac’s offense before it even gets started, but it’s more likely Petrino works to win a standup battle. As I said, I still can’t get a proper gauge of Petrino’s potential in this division, so I’m going with the safe pick, which is Spivac securing a takedown and finishing with ground-and-pound late in the first.

Pick: Spivac

Reinier de Ridder (8 MW) vs. Roman Dolidze

This fight could get ugly as hell.

Look, I get that Reinier de Ridder is moving back to a more comfortable weight, one in which he actually won and defended a championship belt multiple times. Freed of a brutal weight cut, it stands to reason his performance level should rise, at least above what we’ve seen in uninspiring efforts against Caio Borralho and Brendan Allen. At his best, de Ridder is a funky kickboxer and a dangerous submission artist.

At his worst, he’s the kind of guy who could lose a fight to Roman Dolidze. Theoretically, this is the right matchup for de Ridder to reassert himself with Dolidze also coming off of consecutive losses and looking like he’s maybe one more poor result from retirement. That said, Dolidze has rarely been an easy out for anyone and he’s capable of drawing de Ridder into a mucky fight.

Fortunately for de Ridder, he thrives in those situations, so even if it’s not much to look at for a round or two, I can see him outlasting Dolidze and finishing with a late submission.

Pick: De Ridder

MarQuel Mederos vs. Mason Jones

Mason Jones, I believe in you.

Seeing Jones have a successful second stint with the UFC has been a joy. He impressed in his first run against some stiff competition, losing a Fight of the Year match to Mike Davis, defeating David Onama (that aged well), and losing to Ludovit Klein. At no point did Jones look outmatched, and when he ended up returning to Cage Warriors, his UFC experience aided him in stringing together four straight victories and earning him another shot at the octagon.

I like MarQuel Mederos, but we saw some limitations in his recent draw with Chris Padilla (that probably should have gone Padilla’s way) and I have Jones with a significant edge in the standup. Jones also utilizes his reach well, which was an issue Mederos had in his scrap with Padilla.

Whoever wins, this should be a banger, and I have Jones coming out on top in a potential Fight of the Night.

Pick: Jones

Carli Judice vs. Jeisla Chaves

Carli Judice should get the W here, but Jeisla Chaves is no walkover.

We know Judice is going to come forward and look to bully Chaves, bringing the aggressive attitude that has made her a prized member of the Jed Meshew Fighting Family. This is a big step up for Chaves after a grinding effort against Yuneisy Duben, a fighter that Judice took out in under two minutes. But let’s not get too hung up on the MMA Math of it all.

Chaves definitely has to mix things up, using her wrestling to throw Judice off and threaten with submissions if the opportunities present themselves. If you like Judice’s chances of developing into a contender, you should appreciate how Chaves will force her to expand her game.

In the end, I have Judice winning another entertaining decision and keeping her in the good graces of Boss Meshew.

Pick: Judice

Terrance Chatman vs. Anthony Wint

This may surprise you, but Anthony Wint, the onetime NFL and CFL hopeful, he’s going to try and tackle a man.

Physically speaking, Wint looks like an absolute demon, and while he has a long way to go to build his skill set—calling his standup a “work in progress” is generous—you don’t see his kind of athleticism inside of an MMA cage all that often. He’s the biggest favorite on this card for a reason.

They’ve given Wint an intriguing first test in Terrance Chatman, who probably wouldn’t put up numbers at any pro football combine, but has shown some potential as a fighter. He’s here to stand and counter, and probably likes his chances of catching the less-experienced Wint with something on the feet.

Being ridiculously explosive has always been a solid base for combat sports, however, so I’m not brave enough to pick against Wint yet. Chatman’s patience will be his undoing as Wint will take the initiative and dump Chatman on his back before finishing with a flurry of ground-and-pound.

Pick: Wint

Preliminaries

Lerryan Douglas def. Jamall Emmers

Shamil Gaziev def. Kennedy Nzechukwu

Chris Padilla def. Nasrat Haqparast

Marcio Barbosa def. Ryan Kuse

Gauge Young def. Stan Dorsainvil

Jackson McVey def. Wes Schultz

Shanelle Dyer def. Elise Reed