History goes down Saturday as the UFC touches down in Serbia for the first time with UFC Belgrade, though you wouldn’t be blamed for feeling the occasion is a little subdued given that the card feels like it’s built solely for the home country crowd as opposed to the more casual fan. And that’s OK!
Serbian welterweight contender Uros Medic is all but guaranteed to give the Belgrade Arena audience an excuse to scream their lungs out as he headlines against veteran Daniel Rodriguez. Medic made a plea to UFC CEO Dana White to bring an event to the Balkan nation and the boss man delivered, booking Medic into a headlining spot no less. Win or lose, Medic can take pride in making this happen.
Former UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz brings some much-needed star power to Saturday’s lineup, taking on short-notice replacement Navajo Stirling, but there are also plenty of fresh faces looking to make a name for themselves as they make their UFC debuts.
I feel like now is a good time to mention that we are currently in a stretch of 16 straight weekends with UFC events (beginning with UFC 329 on July 11 and going up to—at least—UFC 333 on Oct. 24), so if you’re feeling a touch of octagon fatigue, well, the ride has only just begun.
What: UFC Belgrade
Where: Belgrade Arena in Belgrade, Serbia.
When: Saturday, Aug. 1. The eight-fight preliminary card begins at 10 a.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 1 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Uros Medic (15) vs. Daniel Rodriguez
One thing we know for sure: Uros Medic is coming out hot whether it’s a good idea or not.
Medic has essentially found a way to turn his fights into coin flips, with an insanely powerful left hand tilting the odds ever so slightly in his favor. He’s been spamming that bad boy like there’s no tomorrow and you know what? It keeps landing. So why mess with what works?
He faces a fellow southpaw in Daniel Rodriguez, a cerebral striker more inclined to gather data as he draws a fight out than go for a first-round flurry. This clash of philosophies could still result in an early finish, though one that the Serbian fans might not be thrilled about. Medic is susceptible to getting countered and he hasn’t always been able to recover. As I said, coin toss.
Rodriguez’s specialty is controlling distance and causing his opponents to make mistakes, and we’ve seen many highlight-reel sluggers frustrated by this approach if they’re unwilling to throw caution to the wind (see: Guskov, Bogdan). How daring are you willing to be, Mr. Medic?
This is Medic’s moment and I’ll be sorely disappointed if he doesn’t seize it. I don’t know if he can make it four first-round finishes in a row, so I have him catching Rodriguez in Round 2 and putting him away.
Pick: Medic
Jan Blachowicz (6) vs. Navajo Stirling
Can one of the UFC’s most enduring underdogs do it again? Bet against Jan Blachowicz at your own peril, just keep in mind the man has probably busted more parlays over the last decade than any fighter currently on the roster. The 43-year-old isn’t quite as effective at this stage of his career, but he’s incredibly difficult to look good against and I don’t expect Navajo Stirling to be the exception.
Stirling—who has drawn both flattering and unflattering comparisons to his teammate, UFC champion Carlos Ulberg—has recently found his finishing touch, but is still raw and is clearly finding himself in the octagon. Blachowicz is a monster step up in competition for him and then you add in the fact Stirling is taking this fight on less than three weeks’ notice after Bogdan Guskov was removed from this rematch to replace Khalil Rountree Jr. at UFC Abu Dhabi this past Saturday (deep breath) and I like Stirling’s chances even less. You need serious gym time to prepare for a guy like Blachowicz!
So yes, I’m doing it, I’m picking Blachowicz for the upset and do so with the knowledge that I’m almost never correct when it comes to Blachowicz fights. Proceed with caution.
Pick: Blachowicz
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura
Struggling at 205? Jump on up to heavyweight!
Ironically, this might be the worst time for Aleksandar Rakic to move to the big boy division given that light heavyweight has become—in my opinion—the worst men’s division in MMA, but I get the logic. Weight up, skill down. That’s traditionally how it’s worked. And unlike other fighters who have made the heavyweight move, Rakic looks to have packed on a ton of muscle, so he could be bringing strength and speed to his new home.
Unfortunately for Rakic, he has a tough welcome in veteran contender Marcin Tybura. Don’t let Tybura’s disappointing effort against Tyrell Fortune fool you, he’s still a difficult out with a mixture of grappling, durability, and smarts keeping him in the game. He’s relied more and more on his wrestling as his career has gone on and it will continue to serve him well if he plans to neutralize Rakic for three rounds.
Simply changing divisions isn’t a guaranteed panacea for fighters, but at 34, Rakic still has plenty of time to turn his career around and I think he has a good chance to pull it off. His first heavyweight venture won’t be pretty, but I think he can land enough hard strikes and outlast Tybura to earn a decision win.
Pick: Rakic
Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin
This is such a difficult matchup to gauge, because how do you rate a couple of middleweights coming off of layup victories (with respect to Jose Medina and Julien Leblanc)? Neither Dusko Todorovic nor Robert Valentin are far removed from three-fight losing streaks and now they’re getting tossed in the blender together. A strange one, for sure.
Somehow, Valentin is the favorite here according to FanDuel, despite the fact that Todorovic has home-field advantage and much more experience against UFC competition. On the other hand, I shouldn’t be too surprised as Valentin showed glimpses of star potential en route to a spot in The Ultimate Fighter 32 finals (I know, I know), and Todorovic has struggled to find his footing since being signed out of Dana White’s Contender Series as an undefeated prospect seven years ago (!).
Todorovic is definitely more chinny, so if the expectation is that this result simply comes down to who lands first, then Valentin is the smart choice. No one has ever called me smart, though, so I like Todorovic to survive a few hairy moments and draw upon the Serbian crowd’s energy to battle back and score a comeback knockout.
Pick: Todorovic
Vlasto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina
Here’s what you need to know: Vlasto Cepo is from Serbia, Gilbert Urbina is not, he’s 1-3 in his past four fights, and he’s fighting for just the fourth time since 2021. Urbina is getting the call to do the job.
If you’ve watched Cepo before, you know he’s not the most tactical fighter, but he is ridiculously tough and heaven help anyone that chooses to stand and bang with him because more often than not he comes out on the right side of that equation. Fourteen wins, all by finish, he’s not here to waste time.
That could work out for Urbina, especially if the onetime Ultimate Fighter contestant is able to drag this fight to the ground. But many have tried to slow Cepo with wrestling and many have failed miserably, ending up backed up against the cage as Cepo wails on them.
I’d like to tell you this is more than a showcase fight for Cepo, but why lie? He wins in the first.
Pick: Cepo
Milos Janicic vs. Noah Gugnon
Milos Janicic and Noah Gugnon are fighting in the UFC for the first time, but their propensity for finishes (28 combined wins by knockout or submission, zero decisions) makes this an ideal matchup to get the main card party started.
Coming off of a win over Alex Oliveira (yes, that Alex Oliveira), Janicic can claim to having fought a higher level of competition than the 25-year-old Gugnon. However, Gugnon is on a hot streak, with his past three opponents failing to last longer than four minutes against the talented French lightweight. Both fighters like to come forward, though Janicic has a slight edge when it comes to fighting off of his back foot and changing rhythm. Janicic relies on a heavy left hand, both for damaging jabs and sneaky left hooks that could catch Gugnon off guard.
Gugnon definitely has the bully in him and he loves throwing big punches on the feet and on the ground. Don’t expect them to wrestle, though, as they’ll aim to put the other man on their back via knockdown, not takedown.
Take a break judges, this should be over before the end of Round 2, with Janicic’s potent range striking giving him the victory.
Pick: Janicic
Preliminaries
Ludovit Klein def. Tofiq Musayev
Michael Oliveira def. Oban Elliott
Mark Vologdin def. Borislav Nikolic
Bogdan Grad def. Dennis Buzukja
Mateusz Rebecki def. Kyle Prepolec
Nina Milosevic def. Hailey Cowan
Jovan Leka def. Alexander Poppeck
Stephanie Luciano def. Marina Spasic
