UFC Abu Dhabi predictions

It took years for Magomed Ankalaev to climb to the top of the light heavyweight mountain, and less than 90 seconds for his reign to end. There’s no telling how long it will take him to make it back, but he takes his first steps to another championship opportunity at UFC Abu Dhabi.

Saturday’s main event features Ankalaev in his first fight since a brutal knockout loss to rival Alex Pereira at UFC 320 this past October. Ankalaev was originally set to face Khalil Rountree Jr., but with Rountree forced to withdraw, in steps up-and-coming contender Bogdan Guskov. This is a change of plans for Guskov as well as he was lined up to rematch Jan Blachowicz at UFC Belgrade next week, only for the matchmakers to call upon him to save the UFC Abu Dhabi headliner.

For one reason or another, Ankalaev has seemingly never been a favorite of the UFC’s shot-callers as it took a seven-year unbeaten streak for him to earn his first title shot; now, he needs to stifle Guskov just to keep his spot in line. On the other side, Guskov is undefeated in his past five fights and suddenly finds himself with an opportunity to jump into the top 5 of the rankings.

Will it be status quo or a new face in the title picture by the end of the weekend?

What: UFC Abu Dhabi

Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi

When: Saturday, July 25. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 9 a.m. ET, followed by a six-fight main card at 12 p.m. ET. The entire event streams live on Paramount+.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and MMA Fighting Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Magomed Ankalaev (3, P4P-17) vs. Bogdan Guskov (12)

Magomed Ankalaev has to find a way to control the action against a wild card of an opponent.

Assuming Bogdan Guskov fights like a man with nothing to lose, this is a dangerous matchup for Ankalaev. Even if you consider Ankalaev to be levels above Guskov in terms of technique, there’s no questioning Guskov’s power and if he just marches in chucking, he has a better than good chance of catching Ankalaev and putting him down. Boom, new contender.

Fortunately for Ankalaev, he’s an expert at defusing his opponents’ offense, which I know sounds laughable considering the last time we saw him he was getting sparked in under 90 seconds by Alex Pereira. But Guskov isn’t “Poatan” and I buy the excuse that Ankalaev at less than 100 percent for that rematch (because that’s the best way to explain why he looked so awful). The real Ankalaev has excellent footwork and usually knows how to keep his chin off of the center line. It will take a big mistake for Guskov to clip him.

When Ankalaev has an opponent eager to come forward, that’s when he has a chance to show off his own finishing ability, and I like him to frustrate Guskov for two rounds before putting him down with strikes in the third.

Pick: Ankalaev

Steve Erceg (14) vs. Ramazan Temirov

As far as gatekeepers go, Steve Erceg is one of the best, and he has a hungry would-be contender knocking at the door in Ramazan Temirov.

We don’t quite know what we have yet with the Temirov, a talented 29-year-old from Uzbekistan who competes for the first time in over 500 days after failing a drug test and receiving a one-year suspension in 2025. He likes to hunt for the knockout early, but showed he can win a striking battle over three rounds as well with an impressive win against Charles Johnson. How hot will he come out of the gates against Erceg?

Erceg is as tough as they come, but we’ve seen him go down early once against Kai Kara-France. He tends to start slow, collect data, and then outwork and outthink his opponents. That strategy could certainly pay off against Temirov should Erceg survive the opening round.

I actually think Erceg will avoid the stoppage, but I still like Temirov’s aggression to pay off in the long run. He wins on points and more importantly, we learn more about whether Temirov can actually be a future contender at 125 pounds.

Pick: Temirov

Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman

We all know what this matchup is.

Islam Dulatov is a talented and highly marketable welterweight prospect. Wellington Turman has been sidelined with shoulder issues for the better part of the last three years and is on a three-fight losing streak dating back to early 2022. You’ll be shocked to hear Dulatov is the biggest favorite on the card, with FanDuel currently having him at -950. And that might be generous to Turman.

This is a showcase for Dulatov and I fully expect him to take advantage of the opportunity, picking Turman apart with strikes from range before landing the perfect shot and adding another highlight finish to his record.

Pick: Dulatov

Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki

Alright, Magomed Zaynukov, let’s turn your memes into dreams. Or something.

“Chanco”—or “John Pork,” if you’re so inclined—finally makes his UFC debut after being one of the most talked-about fighters coming out of the most recent season of Dana White’s Contender Series. Not only have fans had endless fun with Zaynukov’s unwanted nickname, but he’s frequently been touted by mentors Islam Makhachev and Khabib Nurmagomedov as one to watch at 155 pounds. At 31, the time is now for Zaynukov to prove in his UFC debut that he’s more than just another of MMA’s lovable periphery characters.

I’m a little surprised the matchmakers paired him up with Damian Rzepecki, a fellow undefeated fighter who has showed promise in his pre-UFC career, including winning and defending a Fight Exclusive Night lightweight title. Based on their recent performances, I’ve seen no strong indicator that Zaynukov should just run through Rzepecki.

Both fighters are willing to get into a dirty scrap, both mix the martial arts effectively, and both have a ton to prove in their first UFC appearances. Zaynukov has a clear edge in output as he utilizes boxing combinations to close the distance, but Rzepecki hits hard and he only needs one or two good shots to take control of the fight. I’m stumped.

Give me Zaynukov since I expect him to be busier on the feet and do enough to take a decision, but your guess is as good as mine.

Pick: Zaynukov

Rizvan Kuniev (9) vs. Tyrell Fortune

I’m just going to say it: I’m not ready to consider the possibility that Tyrell Fortune is a top 10 UFC heavyweight. Then again, I didn’t expect him to beat Marcin Tybura either and now here we are.

For years, Fortune was treading water in Bellator, proving himself to be a good-not-great heavyweight and seemingly content to stay in that zone. Then, out of nowhere, he makes his UFC debut and not only wins but does so against a rankings stalwart. Now he has one win away from having a single digit next to his name, something that seemed unfathomable six months ago.

Rizvan Kuniev hasn’t exactly wowed in the cage, but he should still be more than well-rounded enough to beat Fortune. There’s nothing pretty about how Kuniev gets it done, he’s strong, his striking is solid, and his cardio is better than you’d expect. Damning with faint praise, but this is heavyweight in 2026.

This could get stupid ugly if it goes the distance, so let’s be optimistic and pick Kuniev to find a finish before the halfway mark of the fight for all of our sakes.

Pick: Kuniev

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev

The game plan for Saygid Izagakhmaev is clear: Go for takedowns and make Abubakar Vagaev think twice about coming forward. Vagaev, who was most recently seen earning a unanimous decision nod in a welterweight title fight against UFC veteran Albert Tumenov, has a Terminator-esque approach to striking at times and he’ll look to walk Izagakhmaev from the moment the bell rings.

One thing Vagaev isn’t known for is his finishing ability (just four KOs and one sub in 24 wins), so he relies on methodical pressure to win fights. Izagakhmaev has to stay off the cage to spoil Vagaev’s debut, which is easier said than done because much of this fight could take place on the edges of the canvas as Izagakhmaev fights for openings to put Vagaev on his back.

Vagaev has more than enough takedown defense to nullify Izagakhmaev’s strategy, so he should cruise to a decision in the standup.

Pick: Vagaev

Preliminaries

Valter Walker (15) def. Thomas Petersen

Dustin Jacoby def. Muhammad Said

Sam Patterson def. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Axel Sola def. Ismael Bonfim

Magomed Tuchalov def. Brendson Ribeiro

Mike Davis def. Nurullo Aliev

Abdul Hussein def. Cody Gibson