UFC 329 takes place this Saturday, headlined by the long-awaited return of Conor McGregor. “Notorious” has not fought in five years — since his leg break against Dustin Poirier in 2021 — and it’s an open question as to how McGregor will look after such a long layoff when he takes on Max Holloway.
Another wrinkle added to the fight is that this is a rematch. McGregor won a decision over Holloway when they fought in 2013, but both men have undergone dramatic changes since then, building Hall of Fame-worthy careers in the process.
So, let’s look at how both McGregor and Holloway can get back in the win column this weekend.
Paths to Victory for Conor McGregor
It’s hard to talk about McGregor with any level of confidence, given the course his career has taken. At the peak of his powers, McGregor was a super-talented fighter with a keen mind for fighting, making him a genuinely fantastic fighter. His run through the featherweight division was no accident. Fueled by his monster left hand and a game set up to maximize it, McGregor was a serious problem for anybody at 145 pounds.
But then he moved up.
At lightweight, McGregor has had some wonderful performances, but both came against opponents tailor-made for him in Eddie Alvarez and Donald Cerrone. In his other fights, McGregor’s power did not seem to carry as well up to 155 pounds, and his game looked limited. Now, could that be because of everything else going on in his life? Sure. Is that definitely why he’s looked meh at lightweight? Nope.
And this fight isn’t even at lightweight. We’re back up to 170 pounds, a weight class McGregor really has no business competing in, even if it is against a fellow blown-up light/featherweight.
Anyway, it’s hard to know what McGregor might look like this weekend, both because of the layoff and because even before the layoff, he looked like he was declining. When McGregor’s game is working at its best, he’s pressing opponents back to the fence, drawing out a reckless charge with small pot shots and kicks, and then lamping them with the left. That’s the formula for all of McGregor’s greatest successes, and you have to imagine that, big picture, it’s what he’ll try to do this weekend.
Assuming this is the case, I’d love to see McGregor focus on his kicking game. McGregor is a terrible low-kicker, but he’s got funky, interesting high and spinning kicks in his arsenal. The spinning attacks are primarily to punish opponents who circle away from him — something I’m not sure Holloway will do much of — but the high kicks are very interesting. Holloway has added kicks to his toolbox as well, but he primarily wants to box, and the more he can keep Holloway’s hands home defending high kicks, the fewer combinations McGregor will eat.
The big thing, in my opinion, for McGregor is to get back to his best self. Against Poirier the second time, McGregor was also coming off a long layoff and was far too reckless. McGregor was consistently punching way out over his feet, trying to hit Poirier and opening himself up for easy calf kicks and counters. If he has that same mentality against Max and chases the KO early, he’s cooked.
Paths to Victory for Max Holloway
While McGregor has been on the shelf for the past five years, Holloway has been steady working. In that time, Holloway has fought eight times, picked up five wins, and won and defended the “BMF” title. That’s a full slate, keeping the tools sharp. But is it too much?
While Holloway’s past five years have been good for almost anyone, the last two have been tough. “Blessed” is already an all-time great, but he’s dropped two of his past three fights, looking a bit shopworn in very different ways. Against Ilia Topuria, Holloway’s legendary chin finally got cracked, albeit at 145 pounds. And then against Charles Oliveira, Holloway looked completely incapable of grappling with Oliveira, or really, competing with a much bigger man. Now, he’s about to fight a guy who hits very hard and figures to have a clear size advantage over him.
For Holloway, the straw that stirs the drink has always been his volume. Max’s striking stats are so absurdly high that he’s already at Cal Ripken levels of “no one will ever surpass this,” and he’s not even retired yet. The man works at an absurdly high rate, and he can do so because he has an all-time chin. If you cannot be hurt, then the smartest plan is to simply throw as much as you can and wait for your opponent to crumble. It’s highly effective, but with his chin finally starting to decline a bit, it’s a more dangerous prospect now than before.
To compensate, Holloway has added some power. Before, Holloway would exclusively wear opponents down with mountains of small cuts. Now, Max isn’t Ilia Topuria, but he cracks hard enough to punish opponents and make them think twice about exchanging freely. That was critical against Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier, but it remains to be seen if it will matter much against McGregor.
For Holloway, the path forward seems clear: Both men are at their best on the front foot, so he must win the footwork battle. McGregor is good at countering one or two shots after leading and drawing in the attack, but he’s much worse when put on his heels. Win the footwork, win the battle.
But if Holloway doesn’t win the footwork, that doesn’t mean he’s dead to rights. McGregor’s single biggest weakness is that he’s a glass cannon. The man has a good chin, but he doesn’t have the cardio, partly because of how aggressively he fights. No man alive can throw 100 percent for 25 minutes; it’s just not possible. But McGregor almost always tries, and if you’re still standing after 8 minutes, the day is won.
For Holloway, if you can’t win the footwork battle (and even if you can), fighting out of southpaw takes away some of the comfort for McGregor’s best weapons, and made him reach and overextend against Poirier. If Max can then chip away with calf kicks and counter right hooks when Conor tries to land the left, plus dig in body shots (something he’s really gotten good at), McGregor will stop being dangerous quickly, and then it’s just a matter of time.
Questions
The biggest question is obviously, what will McGregor look like coming off a long layoff and devastating injury? But another question that has started to make the rounds this week is, will McGregor try to wrestle Holloway? After all, Max looked dreadful against Charles Oliveira, and Conor did rely on his wrestling to seal up the win against Max the first time.
If he does, it would be fascinating, but I just don’t see it happening. McGregor is fighting Holloway because Max is gonna give him the striking matchup he wants. Maybe he’ll shoot a takedown or two just to see if it’s a free win, but if McGregor comes out and starts shooting blast doubles, he’s probably screwed. The man has never had great cardio, and adopting an entirely new style is a good way to gas yourself out, winning a battle to lose the war.
Prediction
Conor McGregor was lucky to fight Max Holloway when he did. Holloway was barely more than an idea at that point, and McGregor was on his ascension. In the 13 years since then, Holloway has gone on to become a better fighter in nearly every phase than McGregor ever was. Not to mention, the style he grew into is a nightmare for McGregor — granite chin, high volume guy with great cardio is among the worst opponents you could pick for peak McGregor. And McGregor isn’t in his peak anymore.
Five years is a long time off, and every other factor seems to be against him here. Hopefully, McGregor will at least show flashes of his old self, but this might get ugly in a hurry.
Max Holloway def. Conor McGregor via TKO (punches) — 1:23, Round 3
