There’s no way of truly knowing that Oregon would lose to two teams that finished 3-9 last season (Oklahoma State and UCLA) before the second weekend of October ended. No one predicted the Kentucky Wildcats to be who we all thought LSU and Lane Kiffin would be, or that Texas A&M would regress from a College Football Playoff team a year ago to fall toward the bottom of the SEC. This is why we play the games, and this is why the sport is so beloved.
At its best, unpredictability is college football's greatest asset, and my rankings are always a reflection of that asset. Admitting when I was wrong — even in a business where that's half the job — isn't fun. I like winning, and I hate losing.
However, headed into Week 7 action, it's useful to look back at my Ultimate 138 rankings — reflected below — and see what teams have over-performed against my expectations and which teams have underperformed to such a degree that I simply have to document their midseason progress here. In both good and bad ways, some teams really surprised me — and probably you too. For others, my preseason rankings were spot on.
Let's get into it. My latest top 25: NRLatest AP top 25: NRRecord entering Week 7: 4-2 The Minutemen pulled off an upset win against a Power Four team as a 30-point underdog on the road to snap a 16-game losing streak, putting an end to their residency at the absolute bottom of the 138-team Football Subdivision. Prior to their 37-21 victory against Rutgers, UMass had not enjoyed a winning record for 1,104 days.
Halfway through 2026, the Minutemen are 4-2 — two wins from going bowling — behind the arm and legs of quarterback Williams "Pop" Watson III. Watson has accounted for more than 1,000 yards of offense with 12 total touchdowns and just two interceptions. Next game: At Buffalo My latest top 25: No.
25Latest AP top 25: NRRecord entering Week 7: 6-0 Something must be in the water in Harrisonburg, Virginia. Must be. How else can we account for former Florida coach Billy Napier beginning this season 6-0 as head coach at James Madison after being fired midseason last year?
In fact, Napier is one of three former or current head coaches at JMU to begin the season undefeated. The others? Indiana coach Curt Cignetti (6-0) and UCLA coach Bob Chesney (5-0) combine with Napier to make the tally 17-0.
JMU is set to leave the Sun Belt in 2027 and join the American Conference, which means one of the great runs in Sun Belt history will come to an end, as well as perhaps Napier’s run of 18-straight wins against Sun Belt opponents. Dating back to his tenure as head coach at Louisiana, he's 26-3 against Sun Belt competition. Next game: vs.
Georgia State My latest top 25: No. 8Latest AP top 25: No. 15Record entering Week 7: 5-1 Not only has Will Stein turned Kentucky into a College Football Playoff team through six games, but the Wildcats also have led at least once in every game they've played.
They lost to Alabama only after blowing a double-digit lead, and they proved themselves to be one of the sport’s most clutch teams with back-to-back wins in overtime against South Carolina and LSU. With Tennessee and Missouri left as Kentucky's only remaining ranked opponents, these Wildcats could be eyeing a double-digit win season. Or at least a finishing record that comfortably puts them among the sports top-50 teams.
Next game: At Oklahoma My latest top 25: No. 24Latest AP top 25: No. 25Record entering Week 7: 4-1 With a change of scenery for the third time in his career, a new offensive coordinator and offensive formations fit for the Canadian Football League, quarterback Aidan Chiles has transformed into a capable field general.
He has completed 71.4% of his passing attempts for an average of 234.4 passing yards per game and led the Wildcats to a 4-1 start with their only loss coming by a single score, on the road to undefeated Indiana. Who saw this Northwestern team coming? Even with a rough road ahead at Oregon, against Iowa and at Ohio State, coach David Braun has his team in a better position than many expected midway through the season.
Next game: At Michigan State My latest top 25: NRLatest AP top 25: NRRecord entering Week 7: 3-2 The addition of former Utah offensive coordinator Jason Beck to the Michigan offensive staff was supposed to help star quarterback Bryce Underwood settle into an offense that suits his strengths as a dual-threat with a devastating rushing attack. Instead, Underwood looks even more lost in the passing game this year than last. The Wolverines have lost four of their last seven games dating back to their 27-9 loss to Ohio State in 2025.
They've also lost two games before the third week in October for three years in a row. Perhaps because head coach Kyle Whittingham was so good at Utah, I — we — expected him to flip the Wolverines into a CFP team again in Year 1. Instead, Whittingham has already acknowledged this gig, his most prestigious, is also the toughest he's ever had, and, looking at the second half of the schedule — Indiana, Oregon, UCLA and the Buckeyes still to play — it's about to get a whole tougher.
Next game: vs. Penn State My latest top 25: No. 23Latest AP top 25: NRRecord entering Week 7: 3-2 The Sooners have been disappointing offensively, and the promised development of quarterback John Mateer turned out to be as unreal as the preseason top-10 ranking I assigned them.
He's fumbled away the ball multiple times, thrown four interceptions in five games and managed just three passing touchdowns against Power Four teams. While Mateer has been bad and the offense has gotten worse since last year, the Oklahoma defense has played at a championship level through the first half of the year. The Sooners’ win against previously No.
1-ranked Texas with just a single offensive score (and no turnovers) highlighted just how good Venables’ defensive unit is this season with safety Peyton Bowen playing at an All-American level. Next game: vs. Kentucky My latest top 25: No.
3Latest AP top 25: No. 3Record entering Week 7: 5-0 Aside from Georgia, Miami is the only program in the country that has not shown any flaws. The Hurricanes play explosive football on offense, and quarterback Darian Mensah has completed 84.2% of his passes.
He's thrown 15 touchdowns and just 21 incompletions. He's not only accurate, but the 'Canes receiving corps also has the surest hands in the sport, with sophomore Malachi Toney leading that wide receiver room with 39 catches for 604 yards and six touchdowns. What remains is how good —or bad — the Canes look against a program with a ranking next to their name on the score bug.
Next game: vs. Florida State My latest top 25: No. 1Latest AP top 25: No.
1Record entering Week 7: 6-0 Even in an age when the talent gap across the sport is shrinking, Kirby Smart has managed to keep a roster and a style of play offensively and defensively that feels straight out of the BCS era. Georgia runs the ball and plays defense. Its best player offensively is debatable — as it is most every year the Dawgs have played for championships.
But quarterback Gunner Stockon gets the nod toward "star" because someone has to be. He's played well, completing 76.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. But he's also had the help of a dominant rushing attack and defense that is as hard to move as a gorilla sitting on your chest.
Headed into Week 7, Georgia giving up just 13.4 points per game — good enough for second-best in the country. Next game: vs. Auburn My latest top 25: No.
5Latest AP top 25: No. 4Record entering Week 7: 5-1 Jeremiah Smith is absurd — defined on first reference by Merriam and Webster as "ridiculously unreasonable, unsound, or incongruous." Anyone who says they predicted he would be this productive, this unguardable, in Year 3 wasn't so much lying as they were predicting the coming of a once-in-a-lifetime player’s ascension with scary specificity. Realize that we're only halfway through the season, and he's already done a full season’s worth of damage by most teams' standards: 48 catches for 916 yards with 11 touchdowns.
It's not hard to forecast Smith catching more than 100 balls for more than 2,000 yards with more than 20 receiving touchdowns this season. As I said, absurd. Ohio State has shown flaws, sure.
But it's undoubtedly a top-5 team still. Next game: At Indiana My latest top 25: No. 7Latest AP top 25: No.
5Record entering Week 7: 6-0 Yes, the Hoosiers have been in some close games against unranked opponents. But one of those teams — Northwestern — is ranked now and, combined with last week's opponent Nebraska, those opponents are 9-2. One of the reasons that the Hoosiers have extended their winning streak to 22-straight games and are bowl-eligible before Halloween for the third year in a row is quarterback Josh Hoover.
The man who threw 33 interceptions in 35 games at TCU hasn't thrown any at Indiana. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 17-0. And Indiana is still special on the edge defensively.
Edge rusher Tobi Osunsanmi has recorded 9.5 tackles for loss, including five sacks. Next game: vs. Ohio State
