After just four weeks, has Kenneth Walker III established himself as the NFL's RB1? Was the Panthers’ electric performance on Sunday night just an appetizer for what they have in store this season? Is C.J.
Stroud blameless in the Texans’ 0-4 start? And the Browns … are a playoff threat?!? Fans brought their hot takes to our @NFLonFOX Instagram.
Now it's my turn to offer my take, provide some analysis, and render a verdict on whether you're on the mark this week. Alright, let’s do it: Fact or Fiction: Fact You’re spot on! Stroud has actually been one of the league's better quarterbacks to start this season, offering reminders of what he was as a rookie in 2023.
Through four games, he’s sixth in passing yards (1,141), third in yards per attempt (7.6), sixth in completion rate over expected (plus-5.3%), 11th in expected points added per dropback (plus 0.06) and 14th in passer rating (95.9), according to Next Gen Stats. He's one of just three quarterbacks who hasn’t thrown an interception this season, and he hasn’t turned the ball over since Week 1. In Week 4 against the Cowboys, Stroud delivered a season-best performance: a 67.7% completion rate for 347 yards and two touchdowns with a 126.7 passer rating, the latter of which is the sixth-highest mark of his career.
The Texans are 0-4 largely because Stroud hasn’t been getting any help from the run game — Houston is averaging just 79.0 rushing yards per game, 30th in the league — and the team’s talented defense has regressed. Houston allowed the fewest yards and second-fewest points in the NFL last season but has dropped to 20th and 26th in those categories, respectively, through four games. The Texans have already given up 30-plus points twice this season, after allowing 30 just once all of 2025, including playoffs (19 games).
They have been particularly bad against the pass, sitting 28th in that department (260.0 passing yards allowed per game). Stroud and the offense have put up 20 or fewer points twice this season, but they’ve recorded at least 30 points in the two games that star wide receiver Nico Collins has played. The Texans have lost four games by a total of 25 points, and in three of the four, they had a go-ahead score late in the fourth quarter.
Stroud has done his part and is setting himself up nicely for the big-money extension that didn’t come this past offseason. But the Texans have a big problem on defense right now. Fact or Fiction: Fiction Before you Chiefs and Walker fans grab the pitchforks, let me explain!
Yes, Walker has been incredible through the first quarter of the season. He leads the NFL in rushing yards (53), yards per carry (6.2), rushing yards over expected (plus-212) and rush EPA (plus-10.9), according to Next Gen Stats. He’s also second in rushing yards after contact (395) and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (4).
Even more impressive, Walker is just the third player in league history with multiple 170-plus rushing yards in a team’s first four games of a season. He’s looking like the best addition the Chiefs have made in the Patrick Mahomes era. But I’m definitely taking Bijan Robinson over Walker as the league's top back.
I know you all saw Robinson’s 59-yard touchdown run last week, when it looked like he was jogging to outrace Saints defenders. The Falcons star is a bit more dynamic as a ball carrier — though Walker leads the league in missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus — and adds much more value in the pass game than Walker, who’s never reached 300 yards receiving for a season. Robinson had 820 last year.
Robinson is also losing carries to Brian Robinson Jr., a strong RB2 who had a career-high three rushing touchdowns last week. Walker, meanwhile, is the Chiefs’ entire rushing offense. Kansas City’s second leading rusher is backup running back Emmett Johnson, who has just 56 rushing yards.
Without Brian Robinson Jr., Bijan Robinson’s numbers would likely match or exceed Kenneth Walker’s output. The Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs is in the conversation for best back in the league as well. Maybe his rushing production hasn’t been there — he’s tied for fifth with 353 rushing yards — but he leads the league in touches (101) and is tied for first in combined rushing and receiving touchdowns (7).
I will say this, though: No running back in the league has been as impactful or a better fit for what his offense is trying to do than Walker. Fact or Fiction: Fact I can’t believe I’m saying this, but … yes, I see the Browns returning to the playoffs this season. And it’s not because I think they’re a top AFC contender.
Teams like the Bills, Ravens, Bengals, Jaguars, Broncos, Chiefs and even Raiders all look more formidable for the long term. But Cleveland has given itself a great cushion with a 3-1 start, and veteran NFL offensive coordinator Todd Monken is apparently the kind of head coach the franchise needed. Great quarterback play gives you a chance in this league.
And regardless of how you feel about Deshaun Watson, on the field he has been one of the better QBs to start this season. He ranks in the top 10 with a 69.6% completion rate (sixth) and a 101.2 passer rating (eighth). The former Pro Bowler has registered three consecutive game-winning drives, the longest streak of his career.
It certainly helps that Cleveland has put a good, young nucleus of pass-catchers around Watson in Denzel Boston (284 receiving yards), Harold Fannin (153) and 2026 first-round pick KC Concepcion (144). Defensively, the Browns have settled into life post-Myles Garrett. They’ve allowed 24 or fewer points in three of their first four games.
That includes holding the Panthers, who are fourth in the NFL averaging 30.3 points per game, to 18 points. Cleveland doesn’t have the most intimidating schedule over the next month-plus, either: at the Jets, vs. Ravens, at the Titans, at the Steelers, at the Saints and then back home against the Texans before its bye week.
Four of those six opponents have one victory or none through four games, and the Browns already won their first matchup with the Steelers. Winning just half of those games would keep Cleveland above .500 heading into Thanksgiving. The Browns are in the always-tough AFC North, but don’t be surprised to see them in position to control their destiny down the stretch.
Fact or Fiction: Fact This is an extremely tough call, just because of how dominant the Falcons have been with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. back from ACL surgery. Atlanta has won back-to-back games, both on the road in prime time, by 20-plus points. But I just have more trust at this point in the Panthers, who’ve been more consistent through the first quarter of the season.
Quarterback Bryce Young looks like a legitimate MVP candidate. Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, coming off a career-high 192 receiving yards against the Lions, is emerging as a top 10-caliber receiver. And since giving up 59 points to Chicago in its season opener, Carolina has allowed just 16.7 points per game over the past three weeks.
The Panthers are starting to look like a complete team. Penix has been great for the Falcons, but it’s been just two games and he has a lengthy injury history. And we’ve seen how atrocious Atlanta’s offense is when he hasn’t played.
I’m also concerned about the Falcons’ pass rush long term. The pressure rate numbers have actually been great — first in the NFL with 82 pressures and third with a 43.6% pressure rate through four weeks, per NGS — but I don’t see that being sustainable. Jalon Walker (ACL) was lost for the season in training camp, and it could take fellow edge rusher James Pearce Jr. a while to find his groove after finishing his eight-game suspension.
The Falcons have just seven sacks this year (tied for 22nd). And then the Bucs and Saints just don’t appear to be in the competition with the Panthers right now. Tampa is one of the NFL’s five teams that are 0-4, while New Orleans has lost three of its first four games.
So though it's a tough call, yes, the Panthers can take the NFC South.
