Iowa snuck past Michigan in college football Week 4, but that kind of win tracks with how the Hawkeyes normally do things. Now it's time to wager on them again … or do we fade? Also on the slate is Michigan-Minnesota, and considering how the Wolverines' offense has looked lately, I wouldn't be surprised if the Golden Gophers protected home turf.
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Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. I don’t know how to explain Iowa to someone who’s never watched the Hawkeyes. They play like a team that isn’t going to win for 55 minutes.
They are often down — even by double digits — for most of the game. Then, when it’s time to win, they make just enough plays, get just enough breaks and the game is close again. And finally, with a bit of luck, they win the game.
Let’s talk about last weekend’s win against Michigan. For three quarters, Iowa’s only points came on a punt-return touchdown in the first quarter. The Hawkeyes' first TD after that occurred in the fourth quarter, after a third-and-long completion on a tipped pass.
Their quarterback threw a ball 100 MPH to a receiver who was seven yards away. He tipped the ball up and behind him. An Iowa tight end (who was out of bounds) jumped back in-bounds and caught the ball for an explosive gain.
On the next play, Iowa scored. If that were an incompletion, Iowa was going to punt. On Iowa’s game-winning drive, the Hawkeyes basically needed a Hail Mary to get the ball near the Wolverines' end zone.
A Michigan player got hurt, which stopped the clock for Iowa. Next play, the Hawkeyes completed a short pass for the game-winning touchdown. It’s just … not sustainable.
I have a difficult time seeing Iowa score in this game, let alone score early in the game. Ohio State’s defense is better than Michigan’s and Iowa is going to play conservative. The Hawkeyes will try to run the ball to avoid getting in bad third-down situations.
They are ranked 82nd in third down conversion, and I’d imagine they hope to limit the passing opportunities for Hank Brown. On the other side, the Buckeyes will have the same game plan as everyone else who plays Iowa — slow and steady. Don’t let Iowa beat you with special teams or dumb voodoo plays.
That slows the game down and forces Iowa to have longer offensive drives. Michigan’s offense is so hit-or-miss but mostly miss. Against Oklahoma, the Wolverines scored 17 points on offense, with one of those touchdowns coming off a short-field turnover.
They scored 19 against Iowa, and no surprise, but they are 87th in points per drive, generate almost no explosive plays and are not great on third down. Michigan is now facing a Minnesota defense that’s good, bordering on being just above average. It did struggle defending the pass against Mississippi State, but that’s clearly not the offense it is facing here.
Minnesota’s defense is good against the run and is the best tackling unit in the sport. The Golden Gophers sport a high-havoc rate and can rush the passer. This is also the Wolverines' first road game with this new operation.
They’ve only played four home games. For Minnesota to cover this game, it will need the offense to play like it did against Washington last weekend. The Golden Gophers threw the ball better than other games and played well in the red zone.
When Darius Taylor plays, this offense is better. He didn’t have a huge game, but it forces defenses to key on him and opens up the play-action pass for Drake Lindsey. Michigan’s defense is at the top of the sport, but it's poor on third down between 1–6 yards, which isn’t great for a road game against the weapons that Minnesota has.
